Incumbent Republican Chris Smith holds a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean across Monmouth and Ocean counties and his decades-long tenure since 1981. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican based on Smith’s consistent double-digit margins, including 67 percent in 2024. Smith advanced unopposed through the June primary while Democrat Rachel Peace secured her nomination with limited resources and fundraising. With the general election on November 3, the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s partisan composition and incumbency advantage. A major national political shift, health-related development, or unforeseen scandal could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns indicate limited vulnerability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$19,141 交易量
$19,141 交易量
2026-11-02
克里斯·史密斯（共和黨）
96%
瑞秋·皮斯（民主黨）
5%
$19,141 交易量
$19,141 交易量
2026-11-02
克里斯·史密斯（共和黨）
$6,168 交易量
96%
瑞秋·皮斯（民主黨）
$12,973 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith holds a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean across Monmouth and Ocean counties and his decades-long tenure since 1981. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican based on Smith’s consistent double-digit margins, including 67 percent in 2024. Smith advanced unopposed through the June primary while Democrat Rachel Peace secured her nomination with limited resources and fundraising. With the general election on November 3, the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s partisan composition and incumbency advantage. A major national political shift, health-related development, or unforeseen scandal could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns indicate limited vulnerability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$19,141結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith holds a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean across Monmouth and Ocean counties and his decades-long tenure since 1981. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican based on Smith’s consistent double-digit margins, including 67 percent in 2024. Smith advanced unopposed through the June primary while Democrat Rachel Peace secured her nomination with limited resources and fundraising. With the general election on November 3, the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s partisan composition and incumbency advantage. A major national political shift, health-related development, or unforeseen scandal could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns indicate limited vulnerability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$19,141結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETIncumbent Republican Chris Smith holds a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean across Monmouth and Ocean counties and his decades-long tenure since 1981. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican based on Smith’s consistent double-digit margins, including 67 percent in 2024. Smith advanced unopposed through the June primary while Democrat Rachel Peace secured her nomination with limited resources and fundraising. With the general election on November 3, the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s partisan composition and incumbency advantage. A major national political shift, health-related development, or unforeseen scandal could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns indicate limited vulnerability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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