Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding lead in the NJ-03 House race due to the district's D+5 partisan voter index, his 2024 general election victory, and unopposed Democratic primary win. The freshman representative benefits from established name recognition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, substantial fundraising, and consistent nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in a divided June primary, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a registration edge. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Conaway aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a national Republican wave, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high GOP turnout in suburban precincts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$29,309 交易量
$29,309 交易量
2026-11-02
Herb Conaway（民主黨）
95%
麥可·麥奎爾（共和黨）
6%
$29,309 交易量
$29,309 交易量
2026-11-02
Herb Conaway（民主黨）
$13,546 交易量
95%
麥可·麥奎爾（共和黨）
$15,763 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding lead in the NJ-03 House race due to the district's D+5 partisan voter index, his 2024 general election victory, and unopposed Democratic primary win. The freshman representative benefits from established name recognition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, substantial fundraising, and consistent nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in a divided June primary, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a registration edge. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Conaway aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a national Republican wave, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high GOP turnout in suburban precincts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$29,309結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding lead in the NJ-03 House race due to the district's D+5 partisan voter index, his 2024 general election victory, and unopposed Democratic primary win. The freshman representative benefits from established name recognition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, substantial fundraising, and consistent nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in a divided June primary, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a registration edge. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Conaway aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a national Republican wave, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high GOP turnout in suburban precincts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$29,309結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding lead in the NJ-03 House race due to the district's D+5 partisan voter index, his 2024 general election victory, and unopposed Democratic primary win. The freshman representative benefits from established name recognition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, substantial fundraising, and consistent nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in a divided June primary, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a registration edge. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Conaway aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a national Republican wave, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high GOP turnout in suburban precincts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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