Trader consensus favors 6,000-6,500 US flight delays on March 31 at 56.5% implied probability, reflecting FlightAware's live tally exceeding 4,500 midway through the day amid thunderstorms grounding flights at Chicago O'Hare (206-minute average delays) and Midway, plus 58-minute ground delays at LaGuardia. Northeast winds disrupting New York (JFK, LGA, EWR), Philadelphia, and Las Vegas operations, alongside FAA arrival restrictions at San Francisco due to runway work, have accelerated the pace beyond March 30's sub-5,600 total and late-March averages. Spring break volume tailwinds and ongoing TSA staffing shortages from prolonged disruptions further bolster expectations for 5,500-7,000 range outcomes, with evening potential at Denver and Detroit.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於6,000-6,500 56%
5,500-6,000 42%
6,500-7,000 42%
7,000-7,500 27%
$786 交易量
$786 交易量
<5,000
9%
5,000-5,500
21%
5,500-6,000
42%
6,000-6,500
56%
6,500-7,000
42%
7,000-7,500
27%
7,500-8,000
18%
>8,000
11%
6,000-6,500 56%
5,500-6,000 42%
6,500-7,000 42%
7,000-7,500 27%
$786 交易量
$786 交易量
<5,000
9%
5,000-5,500
21%
5,500-6,000
42%
6,000-6,500
56%
6,500-7,000
42%
7,000-7,500
27%
7,500-8,000
18%
>8,000
11%
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
市場開放時間: Mar 30, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Trader consensus favors 6,000-6,500 US flight delays on March 31 at 56.5% implied probability, reflecting FlightAware's live tally exceeding 4,500 midway through the day amid thunderstorms grounding flights at Chicago O'Hare (206-minute average delays) and Midway, plus 58-minute ground delays at LaGuardia. Northeast winds disrupting New York (JFK, LGA, EWR), Philadelphia, and Las Vegas operations, alongside FAA arrival restrictions at San Francisco due to runway work, have accelerated the pace beyond March 30's sub-5,600 total and late-March averages. Spring break volume tailwinds and ongoing TSA staffing shortages from prolonged disruptions further bolster expectations for 5,500-7,000 range outcomes, with evening potential at Denver and Detroit.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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