Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74.5% implied probability for Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal—defined as IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average transit calls at 90%+ of pre-crisis levels—by June 30, driven by recent U.S. Central Command enforcement of a partial blockade that has turned back 10-13 Iran-linked vessels since April 14 without fully closing the chokepoint. Despite traffic lingering at 10-15 vessels daily versus a normal 140, optimism reflects falling war risk insurance premiums from 5% to 1%, select tanker exemptions for Iraqi oil, and ceasefire signals amid economic pressures on Iran from diverted routes affecting 34,000+ shipments. Key catalysts include potential U.S.-Iran negotiations and oil price stabilization around recent highs, with traders anticipating gradual normalization over the next 75 days barring escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$32,240 交易量
$32,240 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$32,240 交易量
$32,240 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74.5% implied probability for Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal—defined as IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average transit calls at 90%+ of pre-crisis levels—by June 30, driven by recent U.S. Central Command enforcement of a partial blockade that has turned back 10-13 Iran-linked vessels since April 14 without fully closing the chokepoint. Despite traffic lingering at 10-15 vessels daily versus a normal 140, optimism reflects falling war risk insurance premiums from 5% to 1%, select tanker exemptions for Iraqi oil, and ceasefire signals amid economic pressures on Iran from diverted routes affecting 34,000+ shipments. Key catalysts include potential U.S.-Iran negotiations and oil price stabilization around recent highs, with traders anticipating gradual normalization over the next 75 days barring escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
交易量
$32,240結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74.5% implied probability for Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal—defined as IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average transit calls at 90%+ of pre-crisis levels—by June 30, driven by recent U.S. Central Command enforcement of a partial blockade that has turned back 10-13 Iran-linked vessels since April 14 without fully closing the chokepoint. Despite traffic lingering at 10-15 vessels daily versus a normal 140, optimism reflects falling war risk insurance premiums from 5% to 1%, select tanker exemptions for Iraqi oil, and ceasefire signals amid economic pressures on Iran from diverted routes affecting 34,000+ shipments. Key catalysts include potential U.S.-Iran negotiations and oil price stabilization around recent highs, with traders anticipating gradual normalization over the next 75 days barring escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$32,240結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74.5% implied probability for Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal—defined as IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average transit calls at 90%+ of pre-crisis levels—by June 30, driven by recent U.S. Central Command enforcement of a partial blockade that has turned back 10-13 Iran-linked vessels since April 14 without fully closing the chokepoint. Despite traffic lingering at 10-15 vessels daily versus a normal 140, optimism reflects falling war risk insurance premiums from 5% to 1%, select tanker exemptions for Iraqi oil, and ceasefire signals amid economic pressures on Iran from diverted routes affecting 34,000+ shipments. Key catalysts include potential U.S.-Iran negotiations and oil price stabilization around recent highs, with traders anticipating gradual normalization over the next 75 days barring escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions