$24,565,324 交易量
在2026年6月30日前
$19,785,365 交易量
<1%
在2026年12月31日之前
$2,445,391 交易量
7%
$24,565,324 交易量
在2026年6月30日前
<1%
在2026年12月31日之前
7%
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
市場開放時間: Aug 7, 2025, 12:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...Bitcoin market slumps amid continued ETF outflows and broader crypto sell-off
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
On June 4, cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin fell sharply amid ongoing ETF outflows and market-wide declines, pushing Bitcoin prices toward key support levels and dampening short-term bullish momentum.
Sudden $2 trillion crypto price crash sparks Bitcoin panic and extreme fear
by June 30, 2026 dips to 7%1%
A steep selloff in early June 2026 pushed Bitcoin below $70,000, intensifying market fear and volatility. This crash was exacerbated by large institutional sell-offs and ETF redemptions, further reducing confidence in a near-term $150k price target and lowering the probability of reaching it by June 30.
Long-term funds quietly accumulate Bitcoin at $72K
by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
On June 2, 2026, reports indicated that long-term funds were accumulating Bitcoin via OTC trades around $72,000, viewing current prices as strategic for an 18-month horizon. This accumulation suggested some confidence in Bitcoin's medium-term prospects despite short-term bearish trends.
Bitcoin Drops Below $70,000 as Massive May ETF Outflows and Saylor Selling Rumors Spook Traders
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
Bitcoin fell to its lowest open since April as institutions closed May with the largest monthly ETF outflows of the year, combined with social media panic over MicroStrategy selling.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs see $2 billion outflows, pressuring sentiment
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
By late May 2026, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced nearly $2 billion in combined withdrawals, reflecting institutional selling pressure. This outflow contributed to bearish market sentiment and reduced confidence in Bitcoin reaching $150k by mid-2026.
Bitcoin crashes below $77K triggering major liquidation and ETF outflows
by June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
Bitcoin's price fell below the critical $77,000 support level on May 18, 2026, causing a $657 million liquidation event and significant ETF outflows, reflecting waning institutional demand and increased market volatility, which dampened short-term prospects for hitting $150k by June 30.
Crypto industry wins as Clarity Act clears Senate hurdle
by December 31, 2026 dips to 8%2%
On May 14, 2026, the Clarity Act regulation bill passed a Senate hurdle, signaling progress in establishing a federal regulatory framework for crypto assets including Bitcoin. This development was seen as a positive step for investor protection but added regulatory clarity that influenced market expectations for Bitcoin's price trajectory.
Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle predicts $150K target by year-end 2026
Analysts highlighted Bitcoin's historical 4-year halving cycle as a key driver for a $150,000 price target by the end of 2026, reinforcing market expectations despite recent volatility and price corrections. This cyclical view supported the longer-term December 31, 2026 outcome over the nearer June 30 target.
Sudden Bitcoin price surge fuels $16 trillion crypto market supercycle prediction
by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Bitcoin's price rally alongside stock markets and reports of China secretly stockpiling Bitcoin sparked predictions of a $16 trillion crypto market supercycle, boosting confidence in Bitcoin's growth potential and supporting the $150,000 target by year-end.
Consensus 2026 conference held in Miami with strong institutional participation
by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
The large-scale crypto industry event attracted tens of thousands of participants, boosting institutional interest and market optimism, which supported Bitcoin's price recovery attempts in early May.
Trump administration finalizes design for U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
In late April 2026, the Trump administration confirmed plans to finalize a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within two months. This initiative to accumulate Bitcoin through seized assets or agency fees was seen as a potential bullish catalyst but had limited immediate impact on short-term price probabilities.
Bitcoin price reaches $76,342 amid bullish momentum and institutional interest
by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Bitcoin's price surged to $76,342 on April 28, 2026, fueled by positive market sentiment and growing institutional adoption, supporting optimism for a potential rally toward $150,000 by year-end. This surge reflected confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value despite ongoing market volatility.
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Pull Record $2.44 Billion in April Inflows Led by BlackRock
by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
An eight-day consecutive inflow streak from April 14 to April 23 brought $2.1 billion into spot ETFs, marking the strongest month of inflows in 2026 and temporarily supporting bullish sentiment.
U.S. lawmakers revise crypto tax policy referencing GENIUS Act
On April 14, 2026, U.S. lawmakers updated crypto tax policy discussions, specifically referencing the GENIUS Act which regulates stablecoins but does not extend exemptions to Bitcoin. This highlighted ongoing regulatory scrutiny, contributing to bearish sentiment for Bitcoin's short-term price targets.
Bitcoin Core v31 upgrade released with improved transaction privacy
The major node software upgrade improved fee efficiency and transaction privacy, signaling ongoing technological progress and community commitment to Bitcoin's long-term security, which positively influenced market sentiment.
20 millionth Bitcoin mined, marking a key supply milestone
The mining of the 20 millionth Bitcoin highlighted Bitcoin's programmed scarcity, reinforcing bullish long-term price expectations and supporting the outlook for hitting $150K by year-end. This event underscored the supply-side catalyst amid fiscal uncertainty.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Bitcoin surges above $116,000
by June 30, 2026 surges to 23%19%
The Federal Reserve's first rate cut in years lowered borrowing costs and boosted liquidity, triggering a sharp Bitcoin price surge above $116,000 and renewed optimism about crypto market upside amid easing monetary policy.
Bitcoin price hits low near $68,000 amid market correction
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%20%
Following the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin underwent a significant correction into early 2026, with prices dropping near $68,000, reflecting market uncertainty and profit-taking after a strong rally.
Bitcoin price drops sharply amid broader market selloff
by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%13%
Bitcoin experienced a sharp price drop in early February 2026, falling roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak, reflecting a typical post-bull cycle correction and reducing confidence in near-term $150k targets.
Bitcoin price correction to around $70,000 dampens short-term optimism
by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%13%
Bitcoin corrected roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak, falling below $70,000 by early 2026, which contributed to reduced market confidence in hitting $150,000 within the first half of 2026.
Fed signals delayed interest rate cuts, dampening crypto risk appetite
by June 30, 2026 drops to 5%7%
The Federal Reserve's indication of postponed rate cuts increased monetary policy uncertainty, reducing risk appetite and institutional flows into crypto, leading to a sharp drop in Bitcoin's price probabilities for mid-2026.
Senate Committee advances digital asset oversight framework bill
The Senate's progress on a bipartisan crypto market structure bill aimed to clarify regulatory jurisdiction and consumer protections, signaling potential future regulatory clarity that could impact Bitcoin's institutional adoption and price dynamics.
Analysts revise Bitcoin 2026 price forecasts downward amid market correction
by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%7%
In early 2026, analysts including Standard Chartered and Bernstein lowered Bitcoin price forecasts to around $150,000, citing market corrections and regulatory factors, dampening short-term bullish sentiment.
Epoch Ventures predicts Bitcoin will hit $150K by end of 2026
by December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
Epoch Ventures forecasted Bitcoin reaching at least $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing steady ETF inflows and corporate adoption, signaling a shift to gradual growth rather than volatile cycles.
January 2026 ETF inflow reversal lifts Bitcoin 7.7 % to $93.8K
by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%5%
Four‑day net inflow of $385.9 M into spot Bitcoin ETFs (BlackRock and Fidelity) reversed a $1.5 B outflow streak, pushing Bitcoin up 7.7 % to $93,816 and nudging the probability of the “by‑June‑30” outcome higher.
U.S. Congress enacts GENIUS Act, establishing federal stablecoin framework
The GENIUS Act provided regulatory clarity by assigning stablecoin oversight to banking regulators, reducing uncertainty and signaling U.S. commitment to regulated digital assets, which helped stabilize market sentiment despite unresolved crypto market structure issues.
Standard Chartered slashes Bitcoin forecast to $150K by 2026
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%22%
Standard Chartered cut its Bitcoin price target to $150 K by 2026, down from a previous $300 K. The downgrade signalled a more modest outlook, prompting a short‑term pullback that coincides with the drop from 33 % on Dec 6 to 11 % on Feb 11 (by‑December‑31 outcome).
BlackRock’s IBIT draws $120 M inflows, Bitcoin jumps 8 %
by December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust logged $120 M of net inflows, driving an 8 % jump that lifted the price from 31 % on Dec 28 to 27 % on Jan 8 (by‑December‑31 outcome). The inflow spike reversed earlier outflows and steadied the market.
Digital Asset Treasury companies face valuation challenges amid crypto price plunge
by June 30, 2026 drops to 32%13%
The plunge in crypto prices hurt valuations of Digital Asset Treasury companies, undermining their ability to support Bitcoin buying, leading to market consolidation and reduced price support in early 2026.
Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin price forecast to $150K by end of 2026
by December 31, 2026 drops to 34%5%
Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin price target downward from $300,000 to $150,000 for 2026, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid market volatility and macroeconomic concerns, dampening bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin surges above $90,000 amid Federal Reserve rate cut expectations
by December 31, 2026 rises to 40%2%
Growing anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in December 2025 boosted investor confidence, driving Bitcoin prices above $90,000 and sparking a risk-on rally despite recent volatility and market disruptions like the CME outage.
Bitcoin ETFs attract $524 M inflows, BlackRock leads with $224 M
by June 30, 2026 drops to 16%5%
Spot Bitcoin ETFs received $524 M of net inflows, led by BlackRock’s $224 M, which helped lift Bitcoin from 21 % on Dec 8 to 16 % on Dec 19 (by‑June‑30 outcome). The surge gave fresh institutional support after a period of outflows.
Morgan Stanley signals Bitcoin entering 'autumn' phase of cycle, advising profit-taking
by December 31, 2026 drops to 40%12%
Morgan Stanley strategist warned that Bitcoin was entering a late cycle phase, suggesting an impending bear market and prompting investors to lock in profits, contributing to price declines in late 2025.
MSCI proposes reclassification of Digital Asset Treasury companies, triggering market concerns
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 38%22%
MSCI's consultation to reclassify companies holding large Bitcoin assets as fund-like vehicles threatened index exclusions, undermining a major marginal buyer group and contributing to a sharp market crash and sustained price weakness.
Bitcoin hits all-time high above $126,000
by December 31, 2026 rises to 64%4%
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,198 in early October 2025, reflecting strong ETF inflows and growing long-term allocation by large funds. This peak marked the height of bullish sentiment before a significant correction.
Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, boosting Bitcoin risk appetite
by June 30, 2026 plunges to 58%15%
The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 bps, a dovish move that historically lifts risk assets. Bitcoin rose about 3 % the next day, helping the swing from 73 % on Aug 18 to 58 % on Aug 29 (by‑June‑30 outcome).
Nakamoto CEO predicts $150K Bitcoin once two whales finish selling
by June 30, 2026 surges to 76%25%
Nakamoto CEO David Bailey said Bitcoin was held back by two massive whales and would surge 36% to $150 K once they finished selling. The comment reinforced the narrative that whale liquidation was capping price, contributing to the rise from 51 % on Aug 7 to a peak of 76 % on Aug 13 (by‑June‑30 outcome).
Bitcoin peaks near $126,000, igniting market optimism
by December 31, 2026 surges to 73%22%
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high around $126,000 in October 2025, driven by strong institutional accumulation and ETF inflows, which initially boosted market confidence in hitting $150,000 soon after.
Bitcoin trading above $100,000 amid bullish ETF and institutional adoption forecasts
by June 30, 2026 jumps to 62%11%
In early August 2025, Bitcoin was trading above $100,000, supported by optimistic forecasts from analysts and expectations of ETF-driven price increases. This optimism pushed prediction market prices for hitting $150k higher at the start of the analysis window.
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...Bitcoin market slumps amid continued ETF outflows and broader crypto sell-off
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
On June 4, cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin fell sharply amid ongoing ETF outflows and market-wide declines, pushing Bitcoin prices toward key support levels and dampening short-term bullish momentum.
Sudden $2 trillion crypto price crash sparks Bitcoin panic and extreme fear
by June 30, 2026 dips to 7%1%
A steep selloff in early June 2026 pushed Bitcoin below $70,000, intensifying market fear and volatility. This crash was exacerbated by large institutional sell-offs and ETF redemptions, further reducing confidence in a near-term $150k price target and lowering the probability of reaching it by June 30.
Long-term funds quietly accumulate Bitcoin at $72K
by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
On June 2, 2026, reports indicated that long-term funds were accumulating Bitcoin via OTC trades around $72,000, viewing current prices as strategic for an 18-month horizon. This accumulation suggested some confidence in Bitcoin's medium-term prospects despite short-term bearish trends.
Bitcoin Drops Below $70,000 as Massive May ETF Outflows and Saylor Selling Rumors Spook Traders
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
Bitcoin fell to its lowest open since April as institutions closed May with the largest monthly ETF outflows of the year, combined with social media panic over MicroStrategy selling.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs see $2 billion outflows, pressuring sentiment
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
By late May 2026, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced nearly $2 billion in combined withdrawals, reflecting institutional selling pressure. This outflow contributed to bearish market sentiment and reduced confidence in Bitcoin reaching $150k by mid-2026.
Bitcoin crashes below $77K triggering major liquidation and ETF outflows
by June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
Bitcoin's price fell below the critical $77,000 support level on May 18, 2026, causing a $657 million liquidation event and significant ETF outflows, reflecting waning institutional demand and increased market volatility, which dampened short-term prospects for hitting $150k by June 30.
Crypto industry wins as Clarity Act clears Senate hurdle
by December 31, 2026 dips to 8%2%
On May 14, 2026, the Clarity Act regulation bill passed a Senate hurdle, signaling progress in establishing a federal regulatory framework for crypto assets including Bitcoin. This development was seen as a positive step for investor protection but added regulatory clarity that influenced market expectations for Bitcoin's price trajectory.
Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle predicts $150K target by year-end 2026
Analysts highlighted Bitcoin's historical 4-year halving cycle as a key driver for a $150,000 price target by the end of 2026, reinforcing market expectations despite recent volatility and price corrections. This cyclical view supported the longer-term December 31, 2026 outcome over the nearer June 30 target.
Sudden Bitcoin price surge fuels $16 trillion crypto market supercycle prediction
by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Bitcoin's price rally alongside stock markets and reports of China secretly stockpiling Bitcoin sparked predictions of a $16 trillion crypto market supercycle, boosting confidence in Bitcoin's growth potential and supporting the $150,000 target by year-end.
Consensus 2026 conference held in Miami with strong institutional participation
by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
The large-scale crypto industry event attracted tens of thousands of participants, boosting institutional interest and market optimism, which supported Bitcoin's price recovery attempts in early May.
Trump administration finalizes design for U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
In late April 2026, the Trump administration confirmed plans to finalize a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within two months. This initiative to accumulate Bitcoin through seized assets or agency fees was seen as a potential bullish catalyst but had limited immediate impact on short-term price probabilities.
Bitcoin price reaches $76,342 amid bullish momentum and institutional interest
by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Bitcoin's price surged to $76,342 on April 28, 2026, fueled by positive market sentiment and growing institutional adoption, supporting optimism for a potential rally toward $150,000 by year-end. This surge reflected confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value despite ongoing market volatility.
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Pull Record $2.44 Billion in April Inflows Led by BlackRock
by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
An eight-day consecutive inflow streak from April 14 to April 23 brought $2.1 billion into spot ETFs, marking the strongest month of inflows in 2026 and temporarily supporting bullish sentiment.
U.S. lawmakers revise crypto tax policy referencing GENIUS Act
On April 14, 2026, U.S. lawmakers updated crypto tax policy discussions, specifically referencing the GENIUS Act which regulates stablecoins but does not extend exemptions to Bitcoin. This highlighted ongoing regulatory scrutiny, contributing to bearish sentiment for Bitcoin's short-term price targets.
Bitcoin Core v31 upgrade released with improved transaction privacy
The major node software upgrade improved fee efficiency and transaction privacy, signaling ongoing technological progress and community commitment to Bitcoin's long-term security, which positively influenced market sentiment.
20 millionth Bitcoin mined, marking a key supply milestone
The mining of the 20 millionth Bitcoin highlighted Bitcoin's programmed scarcity, reinforcing bullish long-term price expectations and supporting the outlook for hitting $150K by year-end. This event underscored the supply-side catalyst amid fiscal uncertainty.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Bitcoin surges above $116,000
by June 30, 2026 surges to 23%19%
The Federal Reserve's first rate cut in years lowered borrowing costs and boosted liquidity, triggering a sharp Bitcoin price surge above $116,000 and renewed optimism about crypto market upside amid easing monetary policy.
Bitcoin price hits low near $68,000 amid market correction
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%20%
Following the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin underwent a significant correction into early 2026, with prices dropping near $68,000, reflecting market uncertainty and profit-taking after a strong rally.
Bitcoin price drops sharply amid broader market selloff
by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%13%
Bitcoin experienced a sharp price drop in early February 2026, falling roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak, reflecting a typical post-bull cycle correction and reducing confidence in near-term $150k targets.
Bitcoin price correction to around $70,000 dampens short-term optimism
by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%13%
Bitcoin corrected roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak, falling below $70,000 by early 2026, which contributed to reduced market confidence in hitting $150,000 within the first half of 2026.
Fed signals delayed interest rate cuts, dampening crypto risk appetite
by June 30, 2026 drops to 5%7%
The Federal Reserve's indication of postponed rate cuts increased monetary policy uncertainty, reducing risk appetite and institutional flows into crypto, leading to a sharp drop in Bitcoin's price probabilities for mid-2026.
Senate Committee advances digital asset oversight framework bill
The Senate's progress on a bipartisan crypto market structure bill aimed to clarify regulatory jurisdiction and consumer protections, signaling potential future regulatory clarity that could impact Bitcoin's institutional adoption and price dynamics.
Analysts revise Bitcoin 2026 price forecasts downward amid market correction
by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%7%
In early 2026, analysts including Standard Chartered and Bernstein lowered Bitcoin price forecasts to around $150,000, citing market corrections and regulatory factors, dampening short-term bullish sentiment.
Epoch Ventures predicts Bitcoin will hit $150K by end of 2026
by December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
Epoch Ventures forecasted Bitcoin reaching at least $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing steady ETF inflows and corporate adoption, signaling a shift to gradual growth rather than volatile cycles.
January 2026 ETF inflow reversal lifts Bitcoin 7.7 % to $93.8K
by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%5%
Four‑day net inflow of $385.9 M into spot Bitcoin ETFs (BlackRock and Fidelity) reversed a $1.5 B outflow streak, pushing Bitcoin up 7.7 % to $93,816 and nudging the probability of the “by‑June‑30” outcome higher.
U.S. Congress enacts GENIUS Act, establishing federal stablecoin framework
The GENIUS Act provided regulatory clarity by assigning stablecoin oversight to banking regulators, reducing uncertainty and signaling U.S. commitment to regulated digital assets, which helped stabilize market sentiment despite unresolved crypto market structure issues.
Standard Chartered slashes Bitcoin forecast to $150K by 2026
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%22%
Standard Chartered cut its Bitcoin price target to $150 K by 2026, down from a previous $300 K. The downgrade signalled a more modest outlook, prompting a short‑term pullback that coincides with the drop from 33 % on Dec 6 to 11 % on Feb 11 (by‑December‑31 outcome).
BlackRock’s IBIT draws $120 M inflows, Bitcoin jumps 8 %
by December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust logged $120 M of net inflows, driving an 8 % jump that lifted the price from 31 % on Dec 28 to 27 % on Jan 8 (by‑December‑31 outcome). The inflow spike reversed earlier outflows and steadied the market.
Digital Asset Treasury companies face valuation challenges amid crypto price plunge
by June 30, 2026 drops to 32%13%
The plunge in crypto prices hurt valuations of Digital Asset Treasury companies, undermining their ability to support Bitcoin buying, leading to market consolidation and reduced price support in early 2026.
Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin price forecast to $150K by end of 2026
by December 31, 2026 drops to 34%5%
Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin price target downward from $300,000 to $150,000 for 2026, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid market volatility and macroeconomic concerns, dampening bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin surges above $90,000 amid Federal Reserve rate cut expectations
by December 31, 2026 rises to 40%2%
Growing anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in December 2025 boosted investor confidence, driving Bitcoin prices above $90,000 and sparking a risk-on rally despite recent volatility and market disruptions like the CME outage.
Bitcoin ETFs attract $524 M inflows, BlackRock leads with $224 M
by June 30, 2026 drops to 16%5%
Spot Bitcoin ETFs received $524 M of net inflows, led by BlackRock’s $224 M, which helped lift Bitcoin from 21 % on Dec 8 to 16 % on Dec 19 (by‑June‑30 outcome). The surge gave fresh institutional support after a period of outflows.
Morgan Stanley signals Bitcoin entering 'autumn' phase of cycle, advising profit-taking
by December 31, 2026 drops to 40%12%
Morgan Stanley strategist warned that Bitcoin was entering a late cycle phase, suggesting an impending bear market and prompting investors to lock in profits, contributing to price declines in late 2025.
MSCI proposes reclassification of Digital Asset Treasury companies, triggering market concerns
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 38%22%
MSCI's consultation to reclassify companies holding large Bitcoin assets as fund-like vehicles threatened index exclusions, undermining a major marginal buyer group and contributing to a sharp market crash and sustained price weakness.
Bitcoin hits all-time high above $126,000
by December 31, 2026 rises to 64%4%
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,198 in early October 2025, reflecting strong ETF inflows and growing long-term allocation by large funds. This peak marked the height of bullish sentiment before a significant correction.
Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, boosting Bitcoin risk appetite
by June 30, 2026 plunges to 58%15%
The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 bps, a dovish move that historically lifts risk assets. Bitcoin rose about 3 % the next day, helping the swing from 73 % on Aug 18 to 58 % on Aug 29 (by‑June‑30 outcome).
Nakamoto CEO predicts $150K Bitcoin once two whales finish selling
by June 30, 2026 surges to 76%25%
Nakamoto CEO David Bailey said Bitcoin was held back by two massive whales and would surge 36% to $150 K once they finished selling. The comment reinforced the narrative that whale liquidation was capping price, contributing to the rise from 51 % on Aug 7 to a peak of 76 % on Aug 13 (by‑June‑30 outcome).
Bitcoin peaks near $126,000, igniting market optimism
by December 31, 2026 surges to 73%22%
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high around $126,000 in October 2025, driven by strong institutional accumulation and ETF inflows, which initially boosted market confidence in hitting $150,000 soon after.
Bitcoin trading above $100,000 amid bullish ETF and institutional adoption forecasts
by June 30, 2026 jumps to 62%11%
In early August 2025, Bitcoin was trading above $100,000, supported by optimistic forecasts from analysts and expectations of ETF-driven price increases. This optimism pushed prediction market prices for hitting $150k higher at the start of the analysis window.

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Frequently Asked Questions