Aurélien Tchouaméni’s recent agreement to extend his Real Madrid contract until 2031 stands as the dominant driver behind the 86.3% implied probability assigned to the club. The French midfielder, a regular in the starting XI since his 2022 arrival, committed long-term after reported interest from Manchester United faded, signaling strong satisfaction with his role under the current regime and the club’s project. Traders appear to view the deal as a firm barrier to an exit in the near term, reflected in the single-digit odds attached to Manchester City, Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Liverpool, and Paris Saint-Germain. Only a significant shift in squad dynamics, playing time, or an extraordinary offer could realistically reopen departure scenarios before the new terms expire.