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icon for 誰將成為特朗普的下一任陸軍部長？
政治·軍隊

誰將成為特朗普的下一任陸軍部長？

icon for 誰將成為特朗普的下一任陸軍部長？
政治·軍隊

誰將成為特朗普的下一任陸軍部長？

尚恩·帕內爾 30%

Adam Telle 22%

Brian Mast 13%

Michael Obadal 11%

Polymarket
最新

尚恩·帕內爾 30%

Adam Telle 22%

Brian Mast 13%

Michael Obadal 11%

Polymarket
最新

尚恩·帕內爾

$121 交易量

30%

Adam Telle

$131 交易量

22%

Brian Mast

$172 交易量

13%

Michael Obadal

$51 交易量

11%

Brent Ingraham

$162 交易量

10%

W. Jordan Gillis

$71 交易量

8%

Marc Andersen

$92 交易量

8%

查爾斯·楊三世

$72 交易量

8%

This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The nomination for Army Secretary remains highly uncertain, with trader consensus reflected in closely matched prices across multiple candidates and Other. This tightness stems from the standard Senate confirmation process for cabinet positions, where Trump’s eventual pick must navigate committee review, potential holds, and a floor vote amid competing priorities in his administration. Recent public statements and transition planning have not yet produced a clear frontrunner, leaving room for several individuals with military, legislative, or policy experience to stay viable. Separation could occur through an official announcement, key endorsements from Senate leaders, or emerging details on background and priorities that shift perceived confirmation odds.

This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET.

A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify.

If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$871
結束日期
2029-01-19
市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 2:07 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The nomination for Army Secretary remains highly uncertain, with trader consensus reflected in closely matched prices across multiple candidates and Other. This tightness stems from the standard Senate confirmation process for cabinet positions, where Trump’s eventual pick must navigate committee review, potential holds, and a floor vote amid competing priorities in his administration. Recent public statements and transition planning have not yet produced a clear frontrunner, leaving room for several individuals with military, legislative, or policy experience to stay viable. Separation could occur through an official announcement, key endorsements from Senate leaders, or emerging details on background and priorities that shift perceived confirmation odds.

This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET.

A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify.

If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$871
結束日期
2029-01-19
市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 2:07 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"誰將成為特朗普的下一任陸軍部長？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "尚恩·帕內爾" at 30%, followed by "Adam Telle" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"誰將成為特朗普的下一任陸軍部長？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 15, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "誰將成為特朗普的下一任陸軍部長？," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "誰將成為特朗普的下一任陸軍部長？" is "尚恩·帕內爾" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Adam Telle" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "誰將成為特朗普的下一任陸軍部長？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.