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政治·庫什納(Kushner)

誰將在4月30日之前與伊朗會面？

Market icon
政治·庫什納(Kushner)

誰將在4月30日之前與伊朗會面？

最新

$88,033 交易量

2026-04-30
Polymarket

$88,033 交易量

Polymarket
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? icon

Donald Trump

$77,264 交易量

8%

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? icon

J.D. Vance

$3,397 交易量

72%

Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? icon

Marco Rubio

$3,592 交易量

12%

Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? icon

Jared Kushner

$815 交易量

71%

Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? icon

Steve Witkoff

$2,994 交易量

80%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the collapse of initial US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 10-12—where Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner engaged Iranian delegates led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf without reaching a deal—diplomats are arranging a second round amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration around April 21. President Trump signaled resumption within days on April 15, boosting trader consensus on Witkoff (78% implied probability) as the lead US negotiator, ahead of Vance (76%) and Kushner (65%), reflecting his central role in prior diplomacy and Pakistan's mediation efforts before the April 30 deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$88,033
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the collapse of initial US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 10-12—where Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner engaged Iranian delegates led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf without reaching a deal—diplomats are arranging a second round amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration around April 21. President Trump signaled resumption within days on April 15, boosting trader consensus on Witkoff (78% implied probability) as the lead US negotiator, ahead of Vance (76%) and Kushner (65%), reflecting his central role in prior diplomacy and Pakistan's mediation efforts before the April 30 deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$88,033
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"誰將在4月30日之前與伊朗會面？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Steve Witkoff" at 80%, followed by "J.D. Vance" at 72%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "誰將在4月30日之前與伊朗會面？" has generated $88K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "誰將在4月30日之前與伊朗會面？," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "誰將在4月30日之前與伊朗會面？" is "Steve Witkoff" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 72%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "誰將在4月30日之前與伊朗會面？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.