Amid heightened US-Iran tensions following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Mojtaba Khamenei's ascension as successor in early March 2026, traders price a slim 8% chance of direct Trump-Mojtaba talks by June 30, reflecting skepticism over engagement with the untested new leader. President Trump has repeatedly questioned Mojtaba's visibility and authority, stating in mid-March interviews that "nobody's seen him" and he may be "dead or in very bad shape," complicating diplomacy amid a fragile ceasefire after Israeli strikes and US threats. Recent signals of resumed peace negotiations in Islamabad this week offer potential catalysts, but no confirmed direct channel exists, with prior markets like "by March 31" resolving No. Leadership transition uncertainties and Trump's "maximum pressure" posture sustain low odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$360,765 交易量
4月30日
2%
6月30日
6%
$360,765 交易量
4月30日
2%
6月30日
6%
A talk is defined as any interaction between Mojtaba Khamenei and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間: Mar 25, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A talk is defined as any interaction between Mojtaba Khamenei and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Amid heightened US-Iran tensions following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Mojtaba Khamenei's ascension as successor in early March 2026, traders price a slim 8% chance of direct Trump-Mojtaba talks by June 30, reflecting skepticism over engagement with the untested new leader. President Trump has repeatedly questioned Mojtaba's visibility and authority, stating in mid-March interviews that "nobody's seen him" and he may be "dead or in very bad shape," complicating diplomacy amid a fragile ceasefire after Israeli strikes and US threats. Recent signals of resumed peace negotiations in Islamabad this week offer potential catalysts, but no confirmed direct channel exists, with prior markets like "by March 31" resolving No. Leadership transition uncertainties and Trump's "maximum pressure" posture sustain low odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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