Recent Copernicus data confirming May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, behind only 2024, has anchored near-certain market odds on that outcome. Persistent high ocean heat content, combined with early signs of a developing El Niño, sustained elevated land and sea-surface temperatures consistent with long-term anthropogenic warming trends. Official analyses place the month just below the 2024 benchmark while well above prior baselines, with minimal model disagreement on the final ranking. New monthly reports from agencies like NOAA could refine margins, yet only a substantial downward revision in verified observations would realistically shift consensus away from second place.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 100.0%
1st hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$253,443 交易量
$253,443 交易量
2026-06-10
1st hottest
No
2nd hottest
Yes
3rd hottest
No
4th or lower
No
2nd hottest 100.0%
1st hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$253,443 交易量
$253,443 交易量
2026-06-10
1st hottest
$30,795 交易量
No
2nd hottest
$14,779 交易量
Yes
3rd hottest
$78,913 交易量
No
4th or lower
$128,955 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent Copernicus data confirming May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, behind only 2024, has anchored near-certain market odds on that outcome. Persistent high ocean heat content, combined with early signs of a developing El Niño, sustained elevated land and sea-surface temperatures consistent with long-term anthropogenic warming trends. Official analyses place the month just below the 2024 benchmark while well above prior baselines, with minimal model disagreement on the final ranking. New monthly reports from agencies like NOAA could refine margins, yet only a substantial downward revision in verified observations would realistically shift consensus away from second place.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
交易量
$253,443结束日期
2026-06-10市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent Copernicus data confirming May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, behind only 2024, has anchored near-certain market odds on that outcome. Persistent high ocean heat content, combined with early signs of a developing El Niño, sustained elevated land and sea-surface temperatures consistent with long-term anthropogenic warming trends. Official analyses place the month just below the 2024 benchmark while well above prior baselines, with minimal model disagreement on the final ranking. New monthly reports from agencies like NOAA could refine margins, yet only a substantial downward revision in verified observations would realistically shift consensus away from second place.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$253,443结束日期
2026-06-10市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Recent Copernicus data confirming May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, behind only 2024, has anchored near-certain market odds on that outcome. Persistent high ocean heat content, combined with early signs of a developing El Niño, sustained elevated land and sea-surface temperatures consistent with long-term anthropogenic warming trends. Official analyses place the month just below the 2024 benchmark while well above prior baselines, with minimal model disagreement on the final ranking. New monthly reports from agencies like NOAA could refine margins, yet only a substantial downward revision in verified observations would realistically shift consensus away from second place.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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