A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年7月温度升高(ºC)
2026年7月温度升高(ºC)
1.20–1.24ºC 82%
1.15–1.19ºC 11%
1.25–1.29ºC 9%
1.10–1.14ºC 1.4%
$36,691 交易量
$36,691 交易量
2026-08-01
低于1.10ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
11%
1.20–1.24ºC
82%
1.25–1.29ºC
9%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC 82%
1.15–1.19ºC 11%
1.25–1.29ºC 9%
1.10–1.14ºC 1.4%
$36,691 交易量
$36,691 交易量
2026-08-01
低于1.10ºC
$6,767 交易量
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$2,979 交易量
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$5,678 交易量
11%
1.20–1.24ºC
$10,469 交易量
82%
1.25–1.29ºC
$7,977 交易量
9%
>1.29ºC
$2,821 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
交易量
$36,691结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$36,691结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题