**Recent activity at Anak Krakatau (Krakatau) in early September 2026, with sustained ash plumes reaching ~15 km and estimated ejecta volumes just exceeding 0.1 km³, represents the clearest candidate for a VEI ≥4 event this year.** Official Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program assessments, which resolve the market, have not yet confirmed its final VEI rating or whether it meets the dense-rock equivalent threshold, keeping the probabilities for zero or one such eruption nearly even at 40% and 42.5%. Most other 2026 activity, including continuing eruptions at Kīlauea, Lewotobi, and Semeru, has remained below VEI 4 based on plume heights and volumes reported through mid-year. Historical frequency averages 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 events annually, so the outcome hinges on whether this or any additional late-year intensification at restless systems pushes the count higher before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0 50%
1 44%
2 6.9%
3 2.5%
$1,164,570 交易量
$1,164,570 交易量
2026-12-31
0
40%
1
43%
2
7%
3
2%
4
<1%
5+
1%
0 50%
1 44%
2 6.9%
3 2.5%
$1,164,570 交易量
$1,164,570 交易量
2026-12-31
0
$499,898 交易量
40%
1
$274,881 交易量
43%
2
$46,048 交易量
7%
3
$32,146 交易量
2%
4
$35,659 交易量
<1%
5+
$275,938 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Recent activity at Anak Krakatau (Krakatau) in early September 2026, with sustained ash plumes reaching ~15 km and estimated ejecta volumes just exceeding 0.1 km³, represents the clearest candidate for a VEI ≥4 event this year.** Official Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program assessments, which resolve the market, have not yet confirmed its final VEI rating or whether it meets the dense-rock equivalent threshold, keeping the probabilities for zero or one such eruption nearly even at 40% and 42.5%. Most other 2026 activity, including continuing eruptions at Kīlauea, Lewotobi, and Semeru, has remained below VEI 4 based on plume heights and volumes reported through mid-year. Historical frequency averages 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 events annually, so the outcome hinges on whether this or any additional late-year intensification at restless systems pushes the count higher before December 31.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
交易量
$1,164,570结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Recent activity at Anak Krakatau (Krakatau) in early September 2026, with sustained ash plumes reaching ~15 km and estimated ejecta volumes just exceeding 0.1 km³, represents the clearest candidate for a VEI ≥4 event this year.** Official Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program assessments, which resolve the market, have not yet confirmed its final VEI rating or whether it meets the dense-rock equivalent threshold, keeping the probabilities for zero or one such eruption nearly even at 40% and 42.5%. Most other 2026 activity, including continuing eruptions at Kīlauea, Lewotobi, and Semeru, has remained below VEI 4 based on plume heights and volumes reported through mid-year. Historical frequency averages 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 events annually, so the outcome hinges on whether this or any additional late-year intensification at restless systems pushes the count higher before December 31.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
交易量
$1,164,570结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET**Recent activity at Anak Krakatau (Krakatau) in early September 2026, with sustained ash plumes reaching ~15 km and estimated ejecta volumes just exceeding 0.1 km³, represents the clearest candidate for a VEI ≥4 event this year.** Official Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program assessments, which resolve the market, have not yet confirmed its final VEI rating or whether it meets the dense-rock equivalent threshold, keeping the probabilities for zero or one such eruption nearly even at 40% and 42.5%. Most other 2026 activity, including continuing eruptions at Kīlauea, Lewotobi, and Semeru, has remained below VEI 4 based on plume heights and volumes reported through mid-year. Historical frequency averages 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 events annually, so the outcome hinges on whether this or any additional late-year intensification at restless systems pushes the count higher before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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