Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for 2026 (68% implied probability) because global historical rates average only about 0.5 such events annually, with many years recording none. Through early August 2026, official monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS shows no confirmed VEI ≥4 activity, as recent unrest at sites like Etna, Kīlauea, and Tokachidake has remained lower intensity or effusive. This absence aligns with the power-law frequency distribution where VEI 4+ events (typically ≥0.1 km³ tephra) occur infrequently, and the market reflects the low likelihood of multiple large explosive episodes materializing in the remaining months absent major shifts in seismic or deformation data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0 69%
1 19%
2 4.2%
4 <1%
$1,153,243 交易量
$1,153,243 交易量
2026-12-31
0
69%
1
19%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 69%
1 19%
2 4.2%
4 <1%
$1,153,243 交易量
$1,153,243 交易量
2026-12-31
0
$498,492 交易量
69%
1
$273,654 交易量
19%
2
$40,520 交易量
4%
3
$31,127 交易量
1%
4
$34,668 交易量
1%
5+
$274,782 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for 2026 (68% implied probability) because global historical rates average only about 0.5 such events annually, with many years recording none. Through early August 2026, official monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS shows no confirmed VEI ≥4 activity, as recent unrest at sites like Etna, Kīlauea, and Tokachidake has remained lower intensity or effusive. This absence aligns with the power-law frequency distribution where VEI 4+ events (typically ≥0.1 km³ tephra) occur infrequently, and the market reflects the low likelihood of multiple large explosive episodes materializing in the remaining months absent major shifts in seismic or deformation data.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
交易量
$1,153,243结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for 2026 (68% implied probability) because global historical rates average only about 0.5 such events annually, with many years recording none. Through early August 2026, official monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS shows no confirmed VEI ≥4 activity, as recent unrest at sites like Etna, Kīlauea, and Tokachidake has remained lower intensity or effusive. This absence aligns with the power-law frequency distribution where VEI 4+ events (typically ≥0.1 km³ tephra) occur infrequently, and the market reflects the low likelihood of multiple large explosive episodes materializing in the remaining months absent major shifts in seismic or deformation data.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
交易量
$1,153,243结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for 2026 (68% implied probability) because global historical rates average only about 0.5 such events annually, with many years recording none. Through early August 2026, official monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS shows no confirmed VEI ≥4 activity, as recent unrest at sites like Etna, Kīlauea, and Tokachidake has remained lower intensity or effusive. This absence aligns with the power-law frequency distribution where VEI 4+ events (typically ≥0.1 km³ tephra) occur infrequently, and the market reflects the low likelihood of multiple large explosive episodes materializing in the remaining months absent major shifts in seismic or deformation data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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