**Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (66.5% implied probability), with only modest odds for one event (18%).** This positioning reflects the inherent rarity of large explosive eruptions and the absence of confirmed VEI 4+ activity through early August 2026 despite ongoing global monitoring. VEI 4 eruptions involve at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta and plume heights typically exceeding 10 km, occurring globally several times per decade on average but with substantial year-to-year variability driven by magma chamber dynamics, tectonic stress, and monitoring gaps. Historical records show clusters and quiet periods; the power-law frequency distribution means each step up in VEI reduces likelihood by roughly a factor of 6–7. With roughly half the year elapsed and no reports of qualifying events (current activity centers on smaller, ongoing eruptions such as those at Semeru, Fuego, and Ibu), markets price in a high likelihood that 2026 remains below the threshold. Key recent factors include continued moderate unrest at frequently active systems without escalation to Plinian-scale output, plus forecasts for potential activity at sites like Axial Seamount (possibly later in 2026) that have not yet materialized into large events. Upcoming data releases from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and national observatories will provide updated plume volume and deposit assessments that could shift odds if any current episode intensifies. The market consensus aligns with the statistical baseline that most calendar years see zero or one such eruption.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0 69%
1 19%
2 4.2%
4 <1%
$1,153,243 交易量
$1,153,243 交易量
0
69%
1
19%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 69%
1 19%
2 4.2%
4 <1%
$1,153,243 交易量
$1,153,243 交易量
0
69%
1
19%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
市场开放时间: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (66.5% implied probability), with only modest odds for one event (18%).** This positioning reflects the inherent rarity of large explosive eruptions and the absence of confirmed VEI 4+ activity through early August 2026 despite ongoing global monitoring. VEI 4 eruptions involve at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta and plume heights typically exceeding 10 km, occurring globally several times per decade on average but with substantial year-to-year variability driven by magma chamber dynamics, tectonic stress, and monitoring gaps. Historical records show clusters and quiet periods; the power-law frequency distribution means each step up in VEI reduces likelihood by roughly a factor of 6–7. With roughly half the year elapsed and no reports of qualifying events (current activity centers on smaller, ongoing eruptions such as those at Semeru, Fuego, and Ibu), markets price in a high likelihood that 2026 remains below the threshold. Key recent factors include continued moderate unrest at frequently active systems without escalation to Plinian-scale output, plus forecasts for potential activity at sites like Axial Seamount (possibly later in 2026) that have not yet materialized into large events. Upcoming data releases from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and national observatories will provide updated plume volume and deposit assessments that could shift odds if any current episode intensifies. The market consensus aligns with the statistical baseline that most calendar years see zero or one such eruption.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于



警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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