Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (67% implied probability) because global rates of such events average roughly one every 1–3 years based on Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records, and no confirmed VEI 4+ events have occurred through July. Ongoing activity remains limited to lower-intensity eruptions or effusive events at sites like Kīlauea, Dukono, Semeru, and Great Sitkin, with no monitored systems exhibiting the rapid inflation, deep seismic swarms, or sustained high-level unrest that typically precede Plinian-scale explosions capable of VEI 4 thresholds (≥0.1 km³ ejecta). Recent model runs and USGS/observatory reports show no near-term escalation risks, while the rarity of VEI ≥5 or 6 events further anchors expectations for a quiet year. Updated GVP compilations and any new satellite plume or tephra data through year-end remain the key resolution inputs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0 69%
1 18%
2 4.3%
4 1.0%
$1,153,157 交易量
$1,153,157 交易量
2026-12-31
0
65%
1
18%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 69%
1 18%
2 4.3%
4 1.0%
$1,153,157 交易量
$1,153,157 交易量
2026-12-31
0
$498,486 交易量
65%
1
$273,574 交易量
18%
2
$40,520 交易量
4%
3
$31,127 交易量
1%
4
$34,668 交易量
1%
5+
$274,782 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (67% implied probability) because global rates of such events average roughly one every 1–3 years based on Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records, and no confirmed VEI 4+ events have occurred through July. Ongoing activity remains limited to lower-intensity eruptions or effusive events at sites like Kīlauea, Dukono, Semeru, and Great Sitkin, with no monitored systems exhibiting the rapid inflation, deep seismic swarms, or sustained high-level unrest that typically precede Plinian-scale explosions capable of VEI 4 thresholds (≥0.1 km³ ejecta). Recent model runs and USGS/observatory reports show no near-term escalation risks, while the rarity of VEI ≥5 or 6 events further anchors expectations for a quiet year. Updated GVP compilations and any new satellite plume or tephra data through year-end remain the key resolution inputs.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
交易量
$1,153,157结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (67% implied probability) because global rates of such events average roughly one every 1–3 years based on Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records, and no confirmed VEI 4+ events have occurred through July. Ongoing activity remains limited to lower-intensity eruptions or effusive events at sites like Kīlauea, Dukono, Semeru, and Great Sitkin, with no monitored systems exhibiting the rapid inflation, deep seismic swarms, or sustained high-level unrest that typically precede Plinian-scale explosions capable of VEI 4 thresholds (≥0.1 km³ ejecta). Recent model runs and USGS/observatory reports show no near-term escalation risks, while the rarity of VEI ≥5 or 6 events further anchors expectations for a quiet year. Updated GVP compilations and any new satellite plume or tephra data through year-end remain the key resolution inputs.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
交易量
$1,153,157结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (67% implied probability) because global rates of such events average roughly one every 1–3 years based on Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records, and no confirmed VEI 4+ events have occurred through July. Ongoing activity remains limited to lower-intensity eruptions or effusive events at sites like Kīlauea, Dukono, Semeru, and Great Sitkin, with no monitored systems exhibiting the rapid inflation, deep seismic swarms, or sustained high-level unrest that typically precede Plinian-scale explosions capable of VEI 4 thresholds (≥0.1 km³ ejecta). Recent model runs and USGS/observatory reports show no near-term escalation risks, while the rarity of VEI ≥5 or 6 events further anchors expectations for a quiet year. Updated GVP compilations and any new satellite plume or tephra data through year-end remain the key resolution inputs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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