**Elevated preliminary counts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center already exceed 1,400 tornadoes through early September 2026, well above the long-term U.S. annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300.** Strong spring and early summer activity, including record reports in Illinois and other Midwest states amid northward-shifted storm tracks, has driven the surge, with confirmed monthly totals through June far outpacing climatology. Fall and winter months typically add 100–200 more reports, supporting the market's 90.5% implied probability for 1,250+. Downward revisions to preliminary data or an unusually quiet remainder of the year represent the main realistic paths to a lower total, though current momentum makes sub-1,250 outcomes unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1250+ 91%
1150–1199 4.4%
1200–1249 4.0%
1100–1149 3.5%
$83,038 交易量
$83,038 交易量
2027-01-09
<950
<1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
4%
1250+
91%
1250+ 91%
1150–1199 4.4%
1200–1249 4.0%
1100–1149 3.5%
$83,038 交易量
$83,038 交易量
2027-01-09
<950
$23,841 交易量
<1%
950–999
$3,731 交易量
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 交易量
<1%
1050–1099
$9,289 交易量
<1%
1100–1149
$3,368 交易量
4%
1150–1199
$4,192 交易量
4%
1200–1249
$16,027 交易量
4%
1250+
$19,139 交易量
91%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Elevated preliminary counts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center already exceed 1,400 tornadoes through early September 2026, well above the long-term U.S. annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300.** Strong spring and early summer activity, including record reports in Illinois and other Midwest states amid northward-shifted storm tracks, has driven the surge, with confirmed monthly totals through June far outpacing climatology. Fall and winter months typically add 100–200 more reports, supporting the market's 90.5% implied probability for 1,250+. Downward revisions to preliminary data or an unusually quiet remainder of the year represent the main realistic paths to a lower total, though current momentum makes sub-1,250 outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
交易量
$83,038结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Elevated preliminary counts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center already exceed 1,400 tornadoes through early September 2026, well above the long-term U.S. annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300.** Strong spring and early summer activity, including record reports in Illinois and other Midwest states amid northward-shifted storm tracks, has driven the surge, with confirmed monthly totals through June far outpacing climatology. Fall and winter months typically add 100–200 more reports, supporting the market's 90.5% implied probability for 1,250+. Downward revisions to preliminary data or an unusually quiet remainder of the year represent the main realistic paths to a lower total, though current momentum makes sub-1,250 outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$83,038结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET**Elevated preliminary counts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center already exceed 1,400 tornadoes through early September 2026, well above the long-term U.S. annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300.** Strong spring and early summer activity, including record reports in Illinois and other Midwest states amid northward-shifted storm tracks, has driven the surge, with confirmed monthly totals through June far outpacing climatology. Fall and winter months typically add 100–200 more reports, supporting the market's 90.5% implied probability for 1,250+. Downward revisions to preliminary data or an unusually quiet remainder of the year represent the main realistic paths to a lower total, though current momentum makes sub-1,250 outcomes unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题