**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 15°C low in Qingdao on September 15 reflects aggregated real-money assessment of official meteorological data.** Authoritative forecasts from regional models and monitoring agencies show nocturnal cooling under clear skies and light southerly flow reaching that threshold overnight, consistent with the day's observed diurnal range and dew-point trends near 20°C. This positioning aligns with current conditions where afternoon highs near 27–28°C give way to radiative cooling after sunset without significant cloud cover or onshore advection to moderate temperatures. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected model revisions from late-day observations, localized urban heat effects, or shifts in wind patterns that prevent the air mass from reaching the projected minimum before midnight resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月15日青岛最低气温？
9月15日青岛最低气温？
15°C 100.0%
14℃或以下 <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$1,712 交易量
$1,712 交易量
2026-09-15
14℃或以下
否
15°C
是
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C或更高
否
15°C 100.0%
14℃或以下 <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$1,712 交易量
$1,712 交易量
2026-09-15
14℃或以下
$119 交易量
否
15°C
$224 交易量
是
16°C
$596 交易量
否
17°C
$265 交易量
否
18°C
$344 交易量
否
19°C
$20 交易量
否
20°C
$40 交易量
否
21°C
$20 交易量
否
22°C
$20 交易量
否
23°C
$32 交易量
否
24°C或更高
$32 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 15°C low in Qingdao on September 15 reflects aggregated real-money assessment of official meteorological data.** Authoritative forecasts from regional models and monitoring agencies show nocturnal cooling under clear skies and light southerly flow reaching that threshold overnight, consistent with the day's observed diurnal range and dew-point trends near 20°C. This positioning aligns with current conditions where afternoon highs near 27–28°C give way to radiative cooling after sunset without significant cloud cover or onshore advection to moderate temperatures. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected model revisions from late-day observations, localized urban heat effects, or shifts in wind patterns that prevent the air mass from reaching the projected minimum before midnight resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
交易量
$1,712结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 15°C low in Qingdao on September 15 reflects aggregated real-money assessment of official meteorological data.** Authoritative forecasts from regional models and monitoring agencies show nocturnal cooling under clear skies and light southerly flow reaching that threshold overnight, consistent with the day's observed diurnal range and dew-point trends near 20°C. This positioning aligns with current conditions where afternoon highs near 27–28°C give way to radiative cooling after sunset without significant cloud cover or onshore advection to moderate temperatures. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected model revisions from late-day observations, localized urban heat effects, or shifts in wind patterns that prevent the air mass from reaching the projected minimum before midnight resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,712结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 15°C low in Qingdao on September 15 reflects aggregated real-money assessment of official meteorological data.** Authoritative forecasts from regional models and monitoring agencies show nocturnal cooling under clear skies and light southerly flow reaching that threshold overnight, consistent with the day's observed diurnal range and dew-point trends near 20°C. This positioning aligns with current conditions where afternoon highs near 27–28°C give way to radiative cooling after sunset without significant cloud cover or onshore advection to moderate temperatures. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected model revisions from late-day observations, localized urban heat effects, or shifts in wind patterns that prevent the air mass from reaching the projected minimum before midnight resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题