Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to southwesterly flow advecting warmer, more humid air into the Chicago area ahead of a frontal boundary, supporting daily highs in the low to mid 80s on September 15. Ensemble forecasts show considerable spread tied to the timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms, which could cap temperatures or allow brief warming between cells. This uncertainty explains the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the 80–83 °F bins, with lower odds assigned to cooler outcomes that would require stronger lake moderation or earlier overcast conditions. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the peak temperature range ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月15日芝加哥气温最高？
9月15日芝加哥气温最高？
80-81华氏度 33%
82-83°F 29%
78-79°F 19%
76-77°F 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
71°F或以下
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
12%
78-79°F
19%
80-81华氏度
33%
82-83°F
29%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
9%
90华氏度或更高
3%
80-81华氏度 33%
82-83°F 29%
78-79°F 19%
76-77°F 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
71°F或以下
$10 交易量
1%
72-73°F
$10 交易量
1%
74-75°F
$0 交易量
3%
76-77°F
$0 交易量
12%
78-79°F
$2 交易量
19%
80-81华氏度
$94 交易量
33%
82-83°F
$55 交易量
29%
84-85°F
$103 交易量
9%
86-87°F
$20 交易量
10%
88-89°F
$34 交易量
9%
90华氏度或更高
$10 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to southwesterly flow advecting warmer, more humid air into the Chicago area ahead of a frontal boundary, supporting daily highs in the low to mid 80s on September 15. Ensemble forecasts show considerable spread tied to the timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms, which could cap temperatures or allow brief warming between cells. This uncertainty explains the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the 80–83 °F bins, with lower odds assigned to cooler outcomes that would require stronger lake moderation or earlier overcast conditions. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the peak temperature range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ET
交易量
$338结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to southwesterly flow advecting warmer, more humid air into the Chicago area ahead of a frontal boundary, supporting daily highs in the low to mid 80s on September 15. Ensemble forecasts show considerable spread tied to the timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms, which could cap temperatures or allow brief warming between cells. This uncertainty explains the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the 80–83 °F bins, with lower odds assigned to cooler outcomes that would require stronger lake moderation or earlier overcast conditions. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the peak temperature range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$338结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ETRecent National Weather Service and model guidance point to southwesterly flow advecting warmer, more humid air into the Chicago area ahead of a frontal boundary, supporting daily highs in the low to mid 80s on September 15. Ensemble forecasts show considerable spread tied to the timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms, which could cap temperatures or allow brief warming between cells. This uncertainty explains the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the 80–83 °F bins, with lower odds assigned to cooler outcomes that would require stronger lake moderation or earlier overcast conditions. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the peak temperature range ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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