**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a maximum temperature of 30–31°C in Tokyo on September 14, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southwesterly flow.** This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes (49.5% and 35.0%). Mid-September climatology for Tokyo shows average daily highs near 27–28°C; the current setup features a transient ridge and warmer advection that elevates readings by 2–4°C above the seasonal baseline while keeping precipitation chances low (under 20–30% in most runs). Model agreement is strong across short-range guidance, limiting dispersion and thus compressing implied probabilities away from 29°C or 32°C+ tails. Recent clearing after early-September rainfall has allowed surface temperatures to respond to insolation and boundary-layer mixing, supporting the upward shift in expectations. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble means issued September 12 reinforce this narrow range, with only modest uncertainty from afternoon cloud build-up or minor wind shifts. Traders are therefore pricing the resolution criteria—official JMA Tokyo station maximum—around the most probable model cluster rather than outliers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月14日东京气温最高？
9月14日东京气温最高？
30°C 46%
31°C 27%
29°C 14%
32°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
25°C或以下
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
4%
29°C
14%
30°C
46%
31°C
27%
32°C
5%
33°C
3%
34°C
2%
35°C或更高
<1%
30°C 46%
31°C 27%
29°C 14%
32°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
25°C或以下
$181 交易量
<1%
26°C
$1 交易量
2%
27°C
$24 交易量
4%
28°C
$35 交易量
4%
29°C
$43 交易量
14%
30°C
$461 交易量
46%
31°C
$558 交易量
27%
32°C
$83 交易量
5%
33°C
$19 交易量
3%
34°C
$58 交易量
2%
35°C或更高
$25 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a maximum temperature of 30–31°C in Tokyo on September 14, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southwesterly flow.** This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes (49.5% and 35.0%).
Mid-September climatology for Tokyo shows average daily highs near 27–28°C; the current setup features a transient ridge and warmer advection that elevates readings by 2–4°C above the seasonal baseline while keeping precipitation chances low (under 20–30% in most runs). Model agreement is strong across short-range guidance, limiting dispersion and thus compressing implied probabilities away from 29°C or 32°C+ tails.
Recent clearing after early-September rainfall has allowed surface temperatures to respond to insolation and boundary-layer mixing, supporting the upward shift in expectations. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble means issued September 12 reinforce this narrow range, with only modest uncertainty from afternoon cloud build-up or minor wind shifts. Traders are therefore pricing the resolution criteria—official JMA Tokyo station maximum—around the most probable model cluster rather than outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$1,486结束日期
2026-09-14市场开放时间
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a maximum temperature of 30–31°C in Tokyo on September 14, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southwesterly flow.** This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes (49.5% and 35.0%).
Mid-September climatology for Tokyo shows average daily highs near 27–28°C; the current setup features a transient ridge and warmer advection that elevates readings by 2–4°C above the seasonal baseline while keeping precipitation chances low (under 20–30% in most runs). Model agreement is strong across short-range guidance, limiting dispersion and thus compressing implied probabilities away from 29°C or 32°C+ tails.
Recent clearing after early-September rainfall has allowed surface temperatures to respond to insolation and boundary-layer mixing, supporting the upward shift in expectations. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble means issued September 12 reinforce this narrow range, with only modest uncertainty from afternoon cloud build-up or minor wind shifts. Traders are therefore pricing the resolution criteria—official JMA Tokyo station maximum—around the most probable model cluster rather than outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,486结束日期
2026-09-14市场开放时间
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a maximum temperature of 30–31°C in Tokyo on September 14, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southwesterly flow.** This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes (49.5% and 35.0%). Mid-September climatology for Tokyo shows average daily highs near 27–28°C; the current setup features a transient ridge and warmer advection that elevates readings by 2–4°C above the seasonal baseline while keeping precipitation chances low (under 20–30% in most runs). Model agreement is strong across short-range guidance, limiting dispersion and thus compressing implied probabilities away from 29°C or 32°C+ tails. Recent clearing after early-September rainfall has allowed surface temperatures to respond to insolation and boundary-layer mixing, supporting the upward shift in expectations. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble means issued September 12 reinforce this narrow range, with only modest uncertainty from afternoon cloud build-up or minor wind shifts. Traders are therefore pricing the resolution criteria—official JMA Tokyo station maximum—around the most probable model cluster rather than outliers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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