Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for San Francisco on September 14 points to a high in the low-to-mid 70s, driven by persistent onshore westerly flow and a moderating marine layer that limits inland heating. This aligns with the historical average high near 71°F for the date and explains why the 74-75°F bin leads market-implied odds at 40.5 percent, followed by 76-77°F at 25 percent. Light winds and partly cloudy conditions are expected to prevent the stronger warming seen in past September heat events, while any slight model spread on boundary-layer mixing keeps a modest probability on adjacent bins. Updated NWS short-range forecasts and afternoon observations will provide the final resolution data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月14日旧金山气温最高？
9月14日旧金山气温最高？
74-75°F 35%
76-77°F 31%
72-73华氏度 13%
78-79°F 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
65°F或以下
<1%
66-67华氏度
1%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
5%
72-73华氏度
13%
74-75°F
35%
76-77°F
31%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
8%
82-83华氏度
1%
84华氏度或更高
1%
74-75°F 35%
76-77°F 31%
72-73华氏度 13%
78-79°F 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
65°F或以下
$221 交易量
<1%
66-67华氏度
$75 交易量
1%
68-69°F
$78 交易量
2%
70-71°F
$459 交易量
5%
72-73华氏度
$657 交易量
13%
74-75°F
$1,205 交易量
35%
76-77°F
$1,057 交易量
31%
78-79°F
$807 交易量
11%
80-81°F
$457 交易量
8%
82-83华氏度
$400 交易量
1%
84华氏度或更高
$545 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for San Francisco on September 14 points to a high in the low-to-mid 70s, driven by persistent onshore westerly flow and a moderating marine layer that limits inland heating. This aligns with the historical average high near 71°F for the date and explains why the 74-75°F bin leads market-implied odds at 40.5 percent, followed by 76-77°F at 25 percent. Light winds and partly cloudy conditions are expected to prevent the stronger warming seen in past September heat events, while any slight model spread on boundary-layer mixing keeps a modest probability on adjacent bins. Updated NWS short-range forecasts and afternoon observations will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 12, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
交易量
$5,961结束日期
2026-09-14市场开放时间
Sep 12, 2026, 7:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for San Francisco on September 14 points to a high in the low-to-mid 70s, driven by persistent onshore westerly flow and a moderating marine layer that limits inland heating. This aligns with the historical average high near 71°F for the date and explains why the 74-75°F bin leads market-implied odds at 40.5 percent, followed by 76-77°F at 25 percent. Light winds and partly cloudy conditions are expected to prevent the stronger warming seen in past September heat events, while any slight model spread on boundary-layer mixing keeps a modest probability on adjacent bins. Updated NWS short-range forecasts and afternoon observations will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$5,961结束日期
2026-09-14市场开放时间
Sep 12, 2026, 7:56 AM ETRecent National Weather Service and private model guidance for San Francisco on September 14 points to a high in the low-to-mid 70s, driven by persistent onshore westerly flow and a moderating marine layer that limits inland heating. This aligns with the historical average high near 71°F for the date and explains why the 74-75°F bin leads market-implied odds at 40.5 percent, followed by 76-77°F at 25 percent. Light winds and partly cloudy conditions are expected to prevent the stronger warming seen in past September heat events, while any slight model spread on boundary-layer mixing keeps a modest probability on adjacent bins. Updated NWS short-range forecasts and afternoon observations will provide the final resolution data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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