Persistent cloud cover and frequent showers tied to Mexico City's rainy season are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered, with 24°C at 41.5% and 25°C at 36.5%. At roughly 2,240 meters elevation, baseline maxima are already moderated, while widespread afternoon convection and associated evaporative cooling further suppress peaks by reducing solar insolation. Official model guidance shows 60-80% rain probabilities and persistent high cloud fractions through September 14, producing only modest day-to-day variability. The narrow spread between the two leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing of any brief clearing that could allow an extra degree of warming.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月14日墨西哥城气温最高？
9月14日墨西哥城气温最高？
24°C 41%
25°C 37%
23°C 20%
26°C或更高 9%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
16°C或以下
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
6%
23°C
20%
24°C
41%
25°C
37%
26°C或更高
9%
24°C 41%
25°C 37%
23°C 20%
26°C或更高 9%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
16°C或以下
$137 交易量
1%
17°C
$137 交易量
1%
18°C
$137 交易量
1%
19°C
$137 交易量
1%
20°C
$0 交易量
2%
21°C
$84 交易量
2%
22°C
$35 交易量
6%
23°C
$301 交易量
20%
24°C
$107 交易量
41%
25°C
$59 交易量
37%
26°C或更高
$30 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover and frequent showers tied to Mexico City's rainy season are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered, with 24°C at 41.5% and 25°C at 36.5%. At roughly 2,240 meters elevation, baseline maxima are already moderated, while widespread afternoon convection and associated evaporative cooling further suppress peaks by reducing solar insolation. Official model guidance shows 60-80% rain probabilities and persistent high cloud fractions through September 14, producing only modest day-to-day variability. The narrow spread between the two leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing of any brief clearing that could allow an extra degree of warming.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 12, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
交易量
$1,165结束日期
2026-09-14市场开放时间
Sep 12, 2026, 8:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover and frequent showers tied to Mexico City's rainy season are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered, with 24°C at 41.5% and 25°C at 36.5%. At roughly 2,240 meters elevation, baseline maxima are already moderated, while widespread afternoon convection and associated evaporative cooling further suppress peaks by reducing solar insolation. Official model guidance shows 60-80% rain probabilities and persistent high cloud fractions through September 14, producing only modest day-to-day variability. The narrow spread between the two leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing of any brief clearing that could allow an extra degree of warming.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,165结束日期
2026-09-14市场开放时间
Sep 12, 2026, 8:56 AM ETPersistent cloud cover and frequent showers tied to Mexico City's rainy season are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered, with 24°C at 41.5% and 25°C at 36.5%. At roughly 2,240 meters elevation, baseline maxima are already moderated, while widespread afternoon convection and associated evaporative cooling further suppress peaks by reducing solar insolation. Official model guidance shows 60-80% rain probabilities and persistent high cloud fractions through September 14, producing only modest day-to-day variability. The narrow spread between the two leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing of any brief clearing that could allow an extra degree of warming.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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