Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts indicate persistent cloud cover with scattered showers on September 12, driven by a lingering frontal boundary and northeasterly flow that limits insolation and advects cooler maritime air, keeping projected highs near 24–26 °C versus the 28 °C climatological norm. Model consensus shows modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any afternoon clearing, which directly separates the closely priced 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C outcomes; stronger or more prolonged stratiform clouds favor the lower end while earlier dissipation supports the upper. With resolution only 48 hours away, updated 00Z and 12Z model runs plus surface observations will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月12日东京气温最高？
9月12日东京气温最高？
25°C 33%
24°C 26%
26°C 20%
27°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
18℃及以下
2%
19°C
2%
20°C
3%
21°C
4%
22°C
5%
23°C
9%
24°C
26%
25°C
33%
26°C
20%
27°C
10%
28°C或以上
4%
25°C 33%
24°C 26%
26°C 20%
27°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
18℃及以下
$0 交易量
2%
19°C
$0 交易量
2%
20°C
$0 交易量
3%
21°C
$124 交易量
4%
22°C
$5 交易量
5%
23°C
$24 交易量
9%
24°C
$56 交易量
26%
25°C
$20 交易量
33%
26°C
$10 交易量
20%
27°C
$27 交易量
10%
28°C或以上
$0 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts indicate persistent cloud cover with scattered showers on September 12, driven by a lingering frontal boundary and northeasterly flow that limits insolation and advects cooler maritime air, keeping projected highs near 24–26 °C versus the 28 °C climatological norm. Model consensus shows modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any afternoon clearing, which directly separates the closely priced 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C outcomes; stronger or more prolonged stratiform clouds favor the lower end while earlier dissipation supports the upper. With resolution only 48 hours away, updated 00Z and 12Z model runs plus surface observations will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$265结束日期
2026-09-12市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts indicate persistent cloud cover with scattered showers on September 12, driven by a lingering frontal boundary and northeasterly flow that limits insolation and advects cooler maritime air, keeping projected highs near 24–26 °C versus the 28 °C climatological norm. Model consensus shows modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any afternoon clearing, which directly separates the closely priced 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C outcomes; stronger or more prolonged stratiform clouds favor the lower end while earlier dissipation supports the upper. With resolution only 48 hours away, updated 00Z and 12Z model runs plus surface observations will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$265结束日期
2026-09-12市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent JMA and ensemble forecasts indicate persistent cloud cover with scattered showers on September 12, driven by a lingering frontal boundary and northeasterly flow that limits insolation and advects cooler maritime air, keeping projected highs near 24–26 °C versus the 28 °C climatological norm. Model consensus shows modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any afternoon clearing, which directly separates the closely priced 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C outcomes; stronger or more prolonged stratiform clouds favor the lower end while earlier dissipation supports the upper. With resolution only 48 hours away, updated 00Z and 12Z model runs plus surface observations will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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