Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northerly flow are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo, positioning 20–22°C as the most likely maximum temperature range for September 11. Multiple forecast models show highs near 20°C under overcast skies with near-100% precipitation probability and light northerly winds, consistent with the market-implied probabilities favoring 21°C (38.5%) and 22°C (28.0%). This represents a notable departure from typical early-September climatology, where clearer conditions often allow peaks several degrees higher. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus guidance from operational models, with limited upside risk from clearing trends before peak heating hours. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning of the 11th will provide the final inputs for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月11日东京气温最高？
9月11日东京气温最高？
21°C 43%
20°C 31%
22°C 18%
23°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-11
15°C或以下
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
5%
20°C
31%
21°C
43%
22°C
18%
23°C
6%
24°C
2%
25°C或以上
<1%
21°C 43%
20°C 31%
22°C 18%
23°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-11
15°C或以下
$1,279 交易量
<1%
16°C
$1,124 交易量
<1%
17°C
$297 交易量
<1%
18°C
$11 交易量
2%
19°C
$312 交易量
5%
20°C
$2,252 交易量
31%
21°C
$1,045 交易量
43%
22°C
$980 交易量
18%
23°C
$570 交易量
6%
24°C
$259 交易量
2%
25°C或以上
$468 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northerly flow are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo, positioning 20–22°C as the most likely maximum temperature range for September 11. Multiple forecast models show highs near 20°C under overcast skies with near-100% precipitation probability and light northerly winds, consistent with the market-implied probabilities favoring 21°C (38.5%) and 22°C (28.0%). This represents a notable departure from typical early-September climatology, where clearer conditions often allow peaks several degrees higher. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus guidance from operational models, with limited upside risk from clearing trends before peak heating hours. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning of the 11th will provide the final inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$8,597结束日期
2026-09-11市场开放时间
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northerly flow are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo, positioning 20–22°C as the most likely maximum temperature range for September 11. Multiple forecast models show highs near 20°C under overcast skies with near-100% precipitation probability and light northerly winds, consistent with the market-implied probabilities favoring 21°C (38.5%) and 22°C (28.0%). This represents a notable departure from typical early-September climatology, where clearer conditions often allow peaks several degrees higher. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus guidance from operational models, with limited upside risk from clearing trends before peak heating hours. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning of the 11th will provide the final inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$8,597结束日期
2026-09-11市场开放时间
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETPersistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northerly flow are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo, positioning 20–22°C as the most likely maximum temperature range for September 11. Multiple forecast models show highs near 20°C under overcast skies with near-100% precipitation probability and light northerly winds, consistent with the market-implied probabilities favoring 21°C (38.5%) and 22°C (28.0%). This represents a notable departure from typical early-September climatology, where clearer conditions often allow peaks several degrees higher. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus guidance from operational models, with limited upside risk from clearing trends before peak heating hours. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning of the 11th will provide the final inputs for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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