Strong El Niño conditions intensifying through late summer 2026, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, represent the dominant influence on September tornado potential by favoring increased wind shear and altered jet stream positioning that often suppresses organized severe convection across the central and eastern U.S. Historical SPC data place the September climatological average near 50–70 confirmed tornadoes, aligning closely with the market’s leading 50–74 bin at 52.5% implied probability. Key differentiating variables include the precise strength and timing of frontal passages, Gulf moisture advection, and any tropical cyclone remnants, all of which introduce substantial forecast uncertainty given the wide spread across adjacent bins. NOAA and SPC monthly outlooks through early September will provide the next observational updates traders are monitoring.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年9月美国龙卷风
2026年9月美国龙卷风
50 - 74 52%
25 - 49 49%
75 - 124 47%
125个或更多 44%
最新
最新
2026-10-14
少于25个
42%
25 - 49
49%
50 - 74
52%
75 - 124
47%
125个或更多
44%
50 - 74 52%
25 - 49 49%
75 - 124 47%
125个或更多 44%
最新
最新
2026-10-14
少于25个
$0 交易量
42%
25 - 49
$0 交易量
49%
50 - 74
$0 交易量
52%
75 - 124
$0 交易量
47%
125个或更多
$0 交易量
44%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong El Niño conditions intensifying through late summer 2026, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, represent the dominant influence on September tornado potential by favoring increased wind shear and altered jet stream positioning that often suppresses organized severe convection across the central and eastern U.S. Historical SPC data place the September climatological average near 50–70 confirmed tornadoes, aligning closely with the market’s leading 50–74 bin at 52.5% implied probability. Key differentiating variables include the precise strength and timing of frontal passages, Gulf moisture advection, and any tropical cyclone remnants, all of which introduce substantial forecast uncertainty given the wide spread across adjacent bins. NOAA and SPC monthly outlooks through early September will provide the next observational updates traders are monitoring.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-15市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong El Niño conditions intensifying through late summer 2026, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, represent the dominant influence on September tornado potential by favoring increased wind shear and altered jet stream positioning that often suppresses organized severe convection across the central and eastern U.S. Historical SPC data place the September climatological average near 50–70 confirmed tornadoes, aligning closely with the market’s leading 50–74 bin at 52.5% implied probability. Key differentiating variables include the precise strength and timing of frontal passages, Gulf moisture advection, and any tropical cyclone remnants, all of which introduce substantial forecast uncertainty given the wide spread across adjacent bins. NOAA and SPC monthly outlooks through early September will provide the next observational updates traders are monitoring.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-15市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETStrong El Niño conditions intensifying through late summer 2026, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, represent the dominant influence on September tornado potential by favoring increased wind shear and altered jet stream positioning that often suppresses organized severe convection across the central and eastern U.S. Historical SPC data place the September climatological average near 50–70 confirmed tornadoes, aligning closely with the market’s leading 50–74 bin at 52.5% implied probability. Key differentiating variables include the precise strength and timing of frontal passages, Gulf moisture advection, and any tropical cyclone remnants, all of which introduce substantial forecast uncertainty given the wide spread across adjacent bins. NOAA and SPC monthly outlooks through early September will provide the next observational updates traders are monitoring.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题