The Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal to below-normal September rainfall, driven by a developing very strong El Niño and strengthening high-pressure anticyclone over southern China in the month's second half, underpins trader emphasis on the sub-300 mm range. Early-month low-pressure troughs and multiple tropical systems in the South China Sea introduce upside risk for heavier totals via organized convection, yet climatological norms near 277 mm and model consensus favor drier steering patterns overall. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and tracks, anticyclone intensity, and any rapid ENSO strengthening, with daily HKO updates and NHC monitoring likely to shift odds as the month begins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于九月香港降水量？
九月香港降水量？
<275mm 32%
275-300mm 15%
300-325mm 12%
450-500mm 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
<275mm
32%
275-300mm
15%
300-325mm
12%
325-350mm
9%
350-375mm
8%
375-400mm
7%
400-450mm
7%
450-500mm
12%
500-550mm
9%
550mm+
7%
<275mm 32%
275-300mm 15%
300-325mm 12%
450-500mm 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
<275mm
$805 交易量
32%
275-300mm
$128 交易量
15%
300-325mm
$128 交易量
12%
325-350mm
$128 交易量
9%
350-375mm
$125 交易量
8%
375-400mm
$125 交易量
7%
400-450mm
$150 交易量
7%
450-500mm
$125 交易量
12%
500-550mm
$128 交易量
9%
550mm+
$150 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal to below-normal September rainfall, driven by a developing very strong El Niño and strengthening high-pressure anticyclone over southern China in the month's second half, underpins trader emphasis on the sub-300 mm range. Early-month low-pressure troughs and multiple tropical systems in the South China Sea introduce upside risk for heavier totals via organized convection, yet climatological norms near 277 mm and model consensus favor drier steering patterns overall. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and tracks, anticyclone intensity, and any rapid ENSO strengthening, with daily HKO updates and NHC monitoring likely to shift odds as the month begins.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
交易量
$1,990结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal to below-normal September rainfall, driven by a developing very strong El Niño and strengthening high-pressure anticyclone over southern China in the month's second half, underpins trader emphasis on the sub-300 mm range. Early-month low-pressure troughs and multiple tropical systems in the South China Sea introduce upside risk for heavier totals via organized convection, yet climatological norms near 277 mm and model consensus favor drier steering patterns overall. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and tracks, anticyclone intensity, and any rapid ENSO strengthening, with daily HKO updates and NHC monitoring likely to shift odds as the month begins.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,990结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETThe Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal to below-normal September rainfall, driven by a developing very strong El Niño and strengthening high-pressure anticyclone over southern China in the month's second half, underpins trader emphasis on the sub-300 mm range. Early-month low-pressure troughs and multiple tropical systems in the South China Sea introduce upside risk for heavier totals via organized convection, yet climatological norms near 277 mm and model consensus favor drier steering patterns overall. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and tracks, anticyclone intensity, and any rapid ENSO strengthening, with daily HKO updates and NHC monitoring likely to shift odds as the month begins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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