A rapidly intensifying super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.6 °C in August 2026 and model consensus projecting a peak near +3–4 °C by late fall, supplies the dominant near-term boost to global temperatures. Layered on the long-term anthropogenic trend and record ocean heat content, this raises the odds that September 2026 ranks among the top three warmest Septembers. Differentiation between first- and second-place hinges on the precise magnitude of the El Niño-driven anomaly versus the 2023 and 2024 benchmarks, plus any short-term cooling from regional aerosol or circulation patterns; September data releases from NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth will resolve the ranking.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年9月1日、2日或3日有记录以来最热？
2026年9月1日、2日或3日有记录以来最热？
有记录以来最热 59%
第二热 55%
第3热 21%
第4位或更低 9%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
有记录以来最热
59%
第二热
55%
第3热
21%
第4位或更低
9%
有记录以来最热 59%
第二热 55%
第3热 21%
第4位或更低 9%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
有记录以来最热
$0 交易量
59%
第二热
$0 交易量
55%
第3热
$0 交易量
21%
第4位或更低
$250 交易量
9%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly intensifying super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.6 °C in August 2026 and model consensus projecting a peak near +3–4 °C by late fall, supplies the dominant near-term boost to global temperatures. Layered on the long-term anthropogenic trend and record ocean heat content, this raises the odds that September 2026 ranks among the top three warmest Septembers. Differentiation between first- and second-place hinges on the precise magnitude of the El Niño-driven anomaly versus the 2023 and 2024 benchmarks, plus any short-term cooling from regional aerosol or circulation patterns; September data releases from NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth will resolve the ranking.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市场开放时间： Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
交易量
$250结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly intensifying super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.6 °C in August 2026 and model consensus projecting a peak near +3–4 °C by late fall, supplies the dominant near-term boost to global temperatures. Layered on the long-term anthropogenic trend and record ocean heat content, this raises the odds that September 2026 ranks among the top three warmest Septembers. Differentiation between first- and second-place hinges on the precise magnitude of the El Niño-driven anomaly versus the 2023 and 2024 benchmarks, plus any short-term cooling from regional aerosol or circulation patterns; September data releases from NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth will resolve the ranking.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$250结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETA rapidly intensifying super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.6 °C in August 2026 and model consensus projecting a peak near +3–4 °C by late fall, supplies the dominant near-term boost to global temperatures. Layered on the long-term anthropogenic trend and record ocean heat content, this raises the odds that September 2026 ranks among the top three warmest Septembers. Differentiation between first- and second-place hinges on the precise magnitude of the El Niño-driven anomaly versus the 2023 and 2024 benchmarks, plus any short-term cooling from regional aerosol or circulation patterns; September data releases from NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth will resolve the ranking.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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