The market-implied odds heavily favor no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 due to the extreme rarity of such events, with only five confirmed globally in the instrumental record and an average recurrence of roughly one every 15–20 years. USGS data and paleoseismic records indicate that recurrence intervals on major subduction zones often span centuries, and recent monitoring shows no elevated seismic activity or precursors suggesting an imminent megaquake in the remaining months of 2026. Trader consensus reflects this low baseline probability, reinforced by the absence of any 9.0+ events since 2011. A realistic but low-probability shift could occur if an unexpected cluster develops on an active margin like the Cascadia or Sumatra-Andaman zones, though current observations provide no supporting indicators.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$315,255 交易量
$315,255 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$315,255 交易量
$315,255 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The market-implied odds heavily favor no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 due to the extreme rarity of such events, with only five confirmed globally in the instrumental record and an average recurrence of roughly one every 15–20 years. USGS data and paleoseismic records indicate that recurrence intervals on major subduction zones often span centuries, and recent monitoring shows no elevated seismic activity or precursors suggesting an imminent megaquake in the remaining months of 2026. Trader consensus reflects this low baseline probability, reinforced by the absence of any 9.0+ events since 2011. A realistic but low-probability shift could occur if an unexpected cluster develops on an active margin like the Cascadia or Sumatra-Andaman zones, though current observations provide no supporting indicators.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$315,255结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The market-implied odds heavily favor no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 due to the extreme rarity of such events, with only five confirmed globally in the instrumental record and an average recurrence of roughly one every 15–20 years. USGS data and paleoseismic records indicate that recurrence intervals on major subduction zones often span centuries, and recent monitoring shows no elevated seismic activity or precursors suggesting an imminent megaquake in the remaining months of 2026. Trader consensus reflects this low baseline probability, reinforced by the absence of any 9.0+ events since 2011. A realistic but low-probability shift could occur if an unexpected cluster develops on an active margin like the Cascadia or Sumatra-Andaman zones, though current observations provide no supporting indicators.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$315,255结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETThe market-implied odds heavily favor no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 due to the extreme rarity of such events, with only five confirmed globally in the instrumental record and an average recurrence of roughly one every 15–20 years. USGS data and paleoseismic records indicate that recurrence intervals on major subduction zones often span centuries, and recent monitoring shows no elevated seismic activity or precursors suggesting an imminent megaquake in the remaining months of 2026. Trader consensus reflects this low baseline probability, reinforced by the absence of any 9.0+ events since 2011. A realistic but low-probability shift could occur if an unexpected cluster develops on an active margin like the Cascadia or Sumatra-Andaman zones, though current observations provide no supporting indicators.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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