**USGS data and fault mechanics underpin the 98.7% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027.** Earthquake magnitude scales with rupture length and slip; producing a 10.0 event would require a roughly 14,000 km fault with substantial average displacement—far exceeding any known structure on Earth, as confirmed by USGS analyses. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile quake of 1960 along a ~1,000 km subduction zone segment. Ongoing global seismic monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or model runs indicating such an event is feasible in the remaining months. While theoretical uncertainties in measurement or undiscovered deep faults exist, they are considered negligible given plate-tectonic constraints and the short time window to resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
1% 概率
$816,359 交易量
$816,359 交易量
2026-12-31
是
1% 概率
$816,359 交易量
$816,359 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**USGS data and fault mechanics underpin the 98.7% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027.** Earthquake magnitude scales with rupture length and slip; producing a 10.0 event would require a roughly 14,000 km fault with substantial average displacement—far exceeding any known structure on Earth, as confirmed by USGS analyses. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile quake of 1960 along a ~1,000 km subduction zone segment. Ongoing global seismic monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or model runs indicating such an event is feasible in the remaining months. While theoretical uncertainties in measurement or undiscovered deep faults exist, they are considered negligible given plate-tectonic constraints and the short time window to resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$816,359结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**USGS data and fault mechanics underpin the 98.7% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027.** Earthquake magnitude scales with rupture length and slip; producing a 10.0 event would require a roughly 14,000 km fault with substantial average displacement—far exceeding any known structure on Earth, as confirmed by USGS analyses. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile quake of 1960 along a ~1,000 km subduction zone segment. Ongoing global seismic monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or model runs indicating such an event is feasible in the remaining months. While theoretical uncertainties in measurement or undiscovered deep faults exist, they are considered negligible given plate-tectonic constraints and the short time window to resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$816,359结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET**USGS data and fault mechanics underpin the 98.7% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027.** Earthquake magnitude scales with rupture length and slip; producing a 10.0 event would require a roughly 14,000 km fault with substantial average displacement—far exceeding any known structure on Earth, as confirmed by USGS analyses. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile quake of 1960 along a ~1,000 km subduction zone segment. Ongoing global seismic monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or model runs indicating such an event is feasible in the remaining months. While theoretical uncertainties in measurement or undiscovered deep faults exist, they are considered negligible given plate-tectonic constraints and the short time window to resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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