**No** holds an 87.5% market-implied probability for a major (≥10 kt TNT) meteor strike in 2026 because continuous NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy this year. Current risk lists and Sentry data list only distant, low-probability approaches in later years, while recent close passes involve small meter-scale bodies that produce negligible airbursts. Historical impactor flux data indicate events of this scale occur infrequently, and the absence of any credible detections or alerts through September 2026 reinforces trader consensus. Ongoing surveys such as LSST may identify smaller imminent impactors, but they are unlikely to alter the outlook for larger strikes before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
13% 概率
$202,915 交易量
$202,915 交易量
2026-12-31
是
13% 概率
$202,915 交易量
$202,915 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No** holds an 87.5% market-implied probability for a major (≥10 kt TNT) meteor strike in 2026 because continuous NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy this year.
Current risk lists and Sentry data list only distant, low-probability approaches in later years, while recent close passes involve small meter-scale bodies that produce negligible airbursts. Historical impactor flux data indicate events of this scale occur infrequently, and the absence of any credible detections or alerts through September 2026 reinforces trader consensus. Ongoing surveys such as LSST may identify smaller imminent impactors, but they are unlikely to alter the outlook for larger strikes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
交易量
$202,915结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No** holds an 87.5% market-implied probability for a major (≥10 kt TNT) meteor strike in 2026 because continuous NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy this year.
Current risk lists and Sentry data list only distant, low-probability approaches in later years, while recent close passes involve small meter-scale bodies that produce negligible airbursts. Historical impactor flux data indicate events of this scale occur infrequently, and the absence of any credible detections or alerts through September 2026 reinforces trader consensus. Ongoing surveys such as LSST may identify smaller imminent impactors, but they are unlikely to alter the outlook for larger strikes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$202,915结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET**No** holds an 87.5% market-implied probability for a major (≥10 kt TNT) meteor strike in 2026 because continuous NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy this year. Current risk lists and Sentry data list only distant, low-probability approaches in later years, while recent close passes involve small meter-scale bodies that produce negligible airbursts. Historical impactor flux data indicate events of this scale occur infrequently, and the absence of any credible detections or alerts through September 2026 reinforces trader consensus. Ongoing surveys such as LSST may identify smaller imminent impactors, but they are unlikely to alter the outlook for larger strikes before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题