Trader consensus favors “No” at 79% because the market resolves solely on four rare extremes—a Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact—none of which have materialized by mid-June 2026. Routine M5–M6.2 seismicity continues without approaching great-earthquake thresholds, while NOAA’s below-normal Atlantic forecast (8–14 named storms, 1–3 major) reflects ENSO-neutral conditions and sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification. Smithsonian and USGS monitoring show no volcanic alerts at VEI 6 scale, and no bolide events meet the energy criterion. With six months remaining, the absence of early triggers and climatological baselines that historically produce such outliers only once every several years to decades underpins the current odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$223,410 交易量
$223,410 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$223,410 交易量
$223,410 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors “No” at 79% because the market resolves solely on four rare extremes—a Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact—none of which have materialized by mid-June 2026. Routine M5–M6.2 seismicity continues without approaching great-earthquake thresholds, while NOAA’s below-normal Atlantic forecast (8–14 named storms, 1–3 major) reflects ENSO-neutral conditions and sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification. Smithsonian and USGS monitoring show no volcanic alerts at VEI 6 scale, and no bolide events meet the energy criterion. With six months remaining, the absence of early triggers and climatological baselines that historically produce such outliers only once every several years to decades underpins the current odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$223,410结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors “No” at 79% because the market resolves solely on four rare extremes—a Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact—none of which have materialized by mid-June 2026. Routine M5–M6.2 seismicity continues without approaching great-earthquake thresholds, while NOAA’s below-normal Atlantic forecast (8–14 named storms, 1–3 major) reflects ENSO-neutral conditions and sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification. Smithsonian and USGS monitoring show no volcanic alerts at VEI 6 scale, and no bolide events meet the energy criterion. With six months remaining, the absence of early triggers and climatological baselines that historically produce such outliers only once every several years to decades underpins the current odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$223,410结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors “No” at 79% because the market resolves solely on four rare extremes—a Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact—none of which have materialized by mid-June 2026. Routine M5–M6.2 seismicity continues without approaching great-earthquake thresholds, while NOAA’s below-normal Atlantic forecast (8–14 named storms, 1–3 major) reflects ENSO-neutral conditions and sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification. Smithsonian and USGS monitoring show no volcanic alerts at VEI 6 scale, and no bolide events meet the energy criterion. With six months remaining, the absence of early triggers and climatological baselines that historically produce such outliers only once every several years to decades underpins the current odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题