Trader consensus favors “No” at 79% because the market resolves only if one of four rare extremes occurs by year-end: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026 none of these thresholds have been met amid routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season activity. NOAA’s May forecast calls for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season with just a 10% chance of above-normal activity, supported by ENSO-neutral sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring report no elevated volcanic or great-earthquake alerts. With six months remaining, the absence of early triggers and low historical frequency of qualifying events sustain the current market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$223,410 交易量
$223,410 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$223,410 交易量
$223,410 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors “No” at 79% because the market resolves only if one of four rare extremes occurs by year-end: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026 none of these thresholds have been met amid routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season activity. NOAA’s May forecast calls for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season with just a 10% chance of above-normal activity, supported by ENSO-neutral sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring report no elevated volcanic or great-earthquake alerts. With six months remaining, the absence of early triggers and low historical frequency of qualifying events sustain the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$223,410结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors “No” at 79% because the market resolves only if one of four rare extremes occurs by year-end: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026 none of these thresholds have been met amid routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season activity. NOAA’s May forecast calls for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season with just a 10% chance of above-normal activity, supported by ENSO-neutral sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring report no elevated volcanic or great-earthquake alerts. With six months remaining, the absence of early triggers and low historical frequency of qualifying events sustain the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$223,410结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors “No” at 79% because the market resolves only if one of four rare extremes occurs by year-end: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026 none of these thresholds have been met amid routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season activity. NOAA’s May forecast calls for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season with just a 10% chance of above-normal activity, supported by ENSO-neutral sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring report no elevated volcanic or great-earthquake alerts. With six months remaining, the absence of early triggers and low historical frequency of qualifying events sustain the current market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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