Trader consensus favors “No” at 78% because the market resolves only on four rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 landfall (Saffir-Simpson scale, ≥157 mph sustained winds per NHC criteria), VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity and an early Atlantic season lacking rapid-intensification signals. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not produced the steering patterns or ocean heat content historically linked to U.S. Cat-5 strikes, which average one every several years. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no precursors for VEI 6+ or great earthquakes, while near-Earth object surveys report no imminent threats. With six months left, these thresholds’ low baseline frequencies underpin the current odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$223,410 交易量
$223,410 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$223,410 交易量
$223,410 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors “No” at 78% because the market resolves only on four rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 landfall (Saffir-Simpson scale, ≥157 mph sustained winds per NHC criteria), VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity and an early Atlantic season lacking rapid-intensification signals. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not produced the steering patterns or ocean heat content historically linked to U.S. Cat-5 strikes, which average one every several years. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no precursors for VEI 6+ or great earthquakes, while near-Earth object surveys report no imminent threats. With six months left, these thresholds’ low baseline frequencies underpin the current odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$223,410结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors “No” at 78% because the market resolves only on four rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 landfall (Saffir-Simpson scale, ≥157 mph sustained winds per NHC criteria), VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity and an early Atlantic season lacking rapid-intensification signals. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not produced the steering patterns or ocean heat content historically linked to U.S. Cat-5 strikes, which average one every several years. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no precursors for VEI 6+ or great earthquakes, while near-Earth object surveys report no imminent threats. With six months left, these thresholds’ low baseline frequencies underpin the current odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$223,410结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors “No” at 78% because the market resolves only on four rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 landfall (Saffir-Simpson scale, ≥157 mph sustained winds per NHC criteria), VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity and an early Atlantic season lacking rapid-intensification signals. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not produced the steering patterns or ocean heat content historically linked to U.S. Cat-5 strikes, which average one every several years. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no precursors for VEI 6+ or great earthquakes, while near-Earth object surveys report no imminent threats. With six months left, these thresholds’ low baseline frequencies underpin the current odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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