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icon for 2026年的自然灾害?

2026年的自然灾害?

icon for 2026年的自然灾害?

2026年的自然灾害?

21% 概率
Polymarket

$223,410 交易量

21% 概率
Polymarket

$223,410 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf Trader consensus favors “No” at 79% because the market resolves only if one of four rare extremes occurs by year-end: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026 none of these thresholds have been met amid routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season activity. NOAA’s May forecast calls for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season with just a 10% chance of above-normal activity, supported by ENSO-neutral sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring report no elevated volcanic or great-earthquake alerts. With six months remaining, the absence of early triggers and low historical frequency of qualifying events sustain the current market-implied odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$223,410
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf Trader consensus favors “No” at 79% because the market resolves only if one of four rare extremes occurs by year-end: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026 none of these thresholds have been met amid routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season activity. NOAA’s May forecast calls for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season with just a 10% chance of above-normal activity, supported by ENSO-neutral sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring report no elevated volcanic or great-earthquake alerts. With six months remaining, the absence of early triggers and low historical frequency of qualifying events sustain the current market-implied odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$223,410
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年的自然灾害?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"2026年会有自然灾害吗?",概率为 21%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 21¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 21%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"2026年的自然灾害?"已产生 $223.4K 的总交易量(自Dec 31, 2025市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年的自然灾害?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年的自然灾害?"的当前领先者是"2026年会有自然灾害吗?",概率为 21%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 21%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年的自然灾害?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。