Trader consensus favoring an 83.5% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Historical baselines show these thresholds occur infrequently—U.S. Category 5 landfalls average fewer than one per decade, great earthquakes (≥8.5) strike globally roughly once every 5–10 years, and VEI 6+ eruptions or large meteor impacts are rarer still. With the Atlantic hurricane season winding down and no active alerts from NOAA, USGS, or Smithsonian monitoring, the remaining three months offer limited windows for sudden escalation. Updated agency forecasts continue to align with the current market-implied odds absent new seismic or volcanic signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
17% 概率
$246,887 交易量
$246,887 交易量
2027-02-28
是
17% 概率
$246,887 交易量
$246,887 交易量
2027-02-28
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring an 83.5% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Historical baselines show these thresholds occur infrequently—U.S. Category 5 landfalls average fewer than one per decade, great earthquakes (≥8.5) strike globally roughly once every 5–10 years, and VEI 6+ eruptions or large meteor impacts are rarer still. With the Atlantic hurricane season winding down and no active alerts from NOAA, USGS, or Smithsonian monitoring, the remaining three months offer limited windows for sudden escalation. Updated agency forecasts continue to align with the current market-implied odds absent new seismic or volcanic signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$246,887结束日期
2027-03-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring an 83.5% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Historical baselines show these thresholds occur infrequently—U.S. Category 5 landfalls average fewer than one per decade, great earthquakes (≥8.5) strike globally roughly once every 5–10 years, and VEI 6+ eruptions or large meteor impacts are rarer still. With the Atlantic hurricane season winding down and no active alerts from NOAA, USGS, or Smithsonian monitoring, the remaining three months offer limited windows for sudden escalation. Updated agency forecasts continue to align with the current market-implied odds absent new seismic or volcanic signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$246,887结束日期
2027-03-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETTrader consensus favoring an 83.5% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Historical baselines show these thresholds occur infrequently—U.S. Category 5 landfalls average fewer than one per decade, great earthquakes (≥8.5) strike globally roughly once every 5–10 years, and VEI 6+ eruptions or large meteor impacts are rarer still. With the Atlantic hurricane season winding down and no active alerts from NOAA, USGS, or Smithsonian monitoring, the remaining three months offer limited windows for sudden escalation. Updated agency forecasts continue to align with the current market-implied odds absent new seismic or volcanic signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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