Trader consensus favoring “No” at 79.5% stems primarily from the absence through mid-June 2026 of any qualifying extreme event under the market’s strict criteria: a Category 5 U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Historical frequencies are low—one Cat 5 U.S. landfall every several years, VEI 6+ eruptions roughly once per decade, and great earthquakes only a handful per century—while current ENSO-neutral conditions and sea-surface temperatures have limited rapid intensification potential. Routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season activity have not triggered thresholds, and official monitoring from NOAA, USGS, and the Smithsonian shows no alerts for imminent extremes. With six months remaining, the lack of early catalysts continues to anchor the implied probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$223,410 交易量
$223,410 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$223,410 交易量
$223,410 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring “No” at 79.5% stems primarily from the absence through mid-June 2026 of any qualifying extreme event under the market’s strict criteria: a Category 5 U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Historical frequencies are low—one Cat 5 U.S. landfall every several years, VEI 6+ eruptions roughly once per decade, and great earthquakes only a handful per century—while current ENSO-neutral conditions and sea-surface temperatures have limited rapid intensification potential. Routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season activity have not triggered thresholds, and official monitoring from NOAA, USGS, and the Smithsonian shows no alerts for imminent extremes. With six months remaining, the lack of early catalysts continues to anchor the implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$223,410结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring “No” at 79.5% stems primarily from the absence through mid-June 2026 of any qualifying extreme event under the market’s strict criteria: a Category 5 U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Historical frequencies are low—one Cat 5 U.S. landfall every several years, VEI 6+ eruptions roughly once per decade, and great earthquakes only a handful per century—while current ENSO-neutral conditions and sea-surface temperatures have limited rapid intensification potential. Routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season activity have not triggered thresholds, and official monitoring from NOAA, USGS, and the Smithsonian shows no alerts for imminent extremes. With six months remaining, the lack of early catalysts continues to anchor the implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$223,410结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring “No” at 79.5% stems primarily from the absence through mid-June 2026 of any qualifying extreme event under the market’s strict criteria: a Category 5 U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Historical frequencies are low—one Cat 5 U.S. landfall every several years, VEI 6+ eruptions roughly once per decade, and great earthquakes only a handful per century—while current ENSO-neutral conditions and sea-surface temperatures have limited rapid intensification potential. Routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season activity have not triggered thresholds, and official monitoring from NOAA, USGS, and the Smithsonian shows no alerts for imminent extremes. With six months remaining, the lack of early catalysts continues to anchor the implied probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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