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icon for 2026年的蓝色海啸?

2026年的蓝色海啸?

icon for 2026年的蓝色海啸?

2026年的蓝色海啸?

42% 概率
Polymarket

$29,698 交易量

42% 概率
Polymarket

$29,698 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfDemocrats currently hold a roughly 5- to 6-point lead in national generic-ballot polling averages ahead of the November 2026 midterms, consistent with historical patterns in which the president’s party loses ground. Special-election results through mid-2026 show Democratic candidates outperforming the 2024 baseline by double digits in many contests, reinforcing trader expectations of House gains for the opposition. However, the scale of any swing remains uncertain due to ongoing redistricting, limited numbers of truly competitive seats, and the possibility that early momentum moderates closer to Election Day, as occurred in prior cycles. These factors contribute to the market’s assessment that a large-scale “blue tsunami” remains less likely than a more contained shift in congressional control.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
交易量
$29,698
结束日期
2026-11-30
市场开放时间
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfDemocrats currently hold a roughly 5- to 6-point lead in national generic-ballot polling averages ahead of the November 2026 midterms, consistent with historical patterns in which the president’s party loses ground. Special-election results through mid-2026 show Democratic candidates outperforming the 2024 baseline by double digits in many contests, reinforcing trader expectations of House gains for the opposition. However, the scale of any swing remains uncertain due to ongoing redistricting, limited numbers of truly competitive seats, and the possibility that early momentum moderates closer to Election Day, as occurred in prior cycles. These factors contribute to the market’s assessment that a large-scale “blue tsunami” remains less likely than a more contained shift in congressional control.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
交易量
$29,698
结束日期
2026-11-30
市场开放时间
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年的蓝色海啸?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"2026年会有“蓝色海啸”吗?",概率为 42%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 42¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 42%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"2026年的蓝色海啸?"已产生 $29.7K 的总交易量(自Jan 14, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年的蓝色海啸?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年的蓝色海啸?"的当前领先者是"2026年会有“蓝色海啸”吗?",概率为 42%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 42%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年的蓝色海啸?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。