NASA's Artemis program restructuring and repeated delays have solidified trader consensus against a 2026 human lunar landing. Artemis II completed only a crewed flyby in April, while the agency shifted Artemis III to a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration after Starship Human Landing System development and orbital refueling lagged behind targets. The first surface mission now targets early 2028 under Artemis IV, leaving insufficient time for certification, integration, or launch of any crewed lander before year-end. No other agency or commercial effort has announced viable 2026 surface plans. Extreme technical breakthroughs or unannounced private missions remain theoretically possible but face prohibitive hardware, regulatory, and safety hurdles that make reversal of the current outlook improbable.