No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of “Yes” near 26%. Historical bolide records indicate such events from meter-scale impactors occur on roughly annual timescales, though catalogued NEOs show zero significant risk this year and recent fireballs, including those over Cleveland and Massachusetts, have remained well below the 5 kt threshold. Ongoing surveys could still detect previously unknown small objects, but current orbital data and the absence of elevated activity sustain trader consensus toward resolution as “No.”
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$306,855 交易量
$306,855 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$306,855 交易量
$306,855 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of “Yes” near 26%. Historical bolide records indicate such events from meter-scale impactors occur on roughly annual timescales, though catalogued NEOs show zero significant risk this year and recent fireballs, including those over Cleveland and Massachusetts, have remained well below the 5 kt threshold. Ongoing surveys could still detect previously unknown small objects, but current orbital data and the absence of elevated activity sustain trader consensus toward resolution as “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$306,855结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of “Yes” near 26%. Historical bolide records indicate such events from meter-scale impactors occur on roughly annual timescales, though catalogued NEOs show zero significant risk this year and recent fireballs, including those over Cleveland and Massachusetts, have remained well below the 5 kt threshold. Ongoing surveys could still detect previously unknown small objects, but current orbital data and the absence of elevated activity sustain trader consensus toward resolution as “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$306,863结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of “Yes” near 26%. Historical bolide records indicate such events from meter-scale impactors occur on roughly annual timescales, though catalogued NEOs show zero significant risk this year and recent fireballs, including those over Cleveland and Massachusetts, have remained well below the 5 kt threshold. Ongoing surveys could still detect previously unknown small objects, but current orbital data and the absence of elevated activity sustain trader consensus toward resolution as “No.”
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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