Recent test flights highlight persistent challenges in achieving rapid, tower-based recovery for the Starship upper stage, driving trader consensus toward the 63.5% implied probability that full reusability—defined as repeated booster and ship catches with minimal refurbishment—will not occur before 2027. Flight 13 in July 2026 delivered strong heat shield data and a controlled upper-stage splashdown but saw booster engine issues during descent, while earlier 2026 missions achieved booster catches without demonstrating ship recovery or reflight. Elon Musk has projected the first ship reflight by late 2026 or early 2027, yet Flight 14, slated for mid-September, appears headed for splashdowns rather than tower attempts. Upcoming catalysts include regulatory approvals for expanded operations and any V3 vehicle iterations that could accelerate catch demonstrations.