**Paramount Skydance holds an 80.5% implied probability after securing a definitive $110.9 billion all-cash agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery in February 2026, followed by overwhelming shareholder approval in April.** The U.S. Department of Justice recently closed its antitrust review, removing a major regulatory hurdle and reinforcing trader consensus around successful closing. Earlier bidding rounds saw Netflix initially favored for studios and streaming assets before Paramount’s revised full-company tender prevailed, prompting Netflix to withdraw. Comcast’s partial-asset interest drew limited traction. The 13% probability assigned to no closing by June 30, 2027, accounts for remaining state-level reviews and standard deal timelines, while Netflix and Comcast options reflect diminished competitive positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery expected to close in Q3 2026
Paramount jumps to 81%5%
Following Netflix’s withdrawal and regulatory approvals, Paramount Skydance’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery is on track to close in the third quarter of 2026, effectively ending the bidding war and confirming Paramount as the acquirer.
US Department of Justice approves Paramount's $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount dips to 81%2%
The DOJ's antitrust division approved Paramount's acquisition, removing the last major regulatory hurdle and paving the way for the deal's completion, which solidified Paramount as the acquirer and caused its market price to peak.
Department of Justice approves Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The U.S. Department of Justice cleared Paramount Skydance’s $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, concluding it would not harm competition. This regulatory approval was a critical step toward finalizing the acquisition, solidifying Paramount's position as the acquirer.
U.S. Department of Justice approves Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount drops to 81%5%
The U.S. Department of Justice approved the Paramount acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, clearing a major regulatory hurdle and paving the way for the deal's expected closing in the third quarter of 2026.
Netflix reports solid Q4 but stock falls amid subscriber growth concerns
Netflix dips to 0%1%
Netflix reported strong financial results but slowing subscriber growth raised concerns, impacting its stock negatively. This added pressure on Netflix's ability to close the Warner Bros. acquisition, reflected in its market price decline to near zero.
Warner Bros. board reaffirms Netflix offer superior, urges shareholders to reject Paramount
Netflix dips to 0%2%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board again recommended shareholders reject Paramount's hostile bid, citing risks and debt concerns, and endorsed Netflix's offer as providing superior value and certainty, reinforcing Netflix's favored status in the acquisition race.
Warner Bros. CinemaCon show highlights upcoming films amid acquisition uncertainty
Paramount jumps to 80%10%
Warner Bros. showcased major upcoming films at CinemaCon, reflecting ongoing business as usual despite the pending acquisition battle. Industry concerns about consolidation effects on production and theaters were noted, influencing market sentiment about the acquisition's future.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve Paramount acquisition deal
Paramount jumps to 81%9%
Shareholders of Warner Bros. Discovery voted overwhelmingly to approve the $110 billion acquisition by Paramount Skydance, moving the deal closer to completion. This approval was a key milestone in the acquisition process and boosted market confidence in the Paramount outcome.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders overwhelmingly approve Paramount acquisition
Paramount jumps to 86%5%
Shareholders of Warner Bros. Discovery voted overwhelmingly to approve the $111 billion acquisition by Paramount Skydance, moving the deal closer to completion and solidifying Paramount's position as the acquirer.
Larry Ellison guarantees $40.4B equity financing for Paramount's Warner bid
Paramount rises to 77%3%
Larry Ellison, Oracle founder and father of Paramount CEO David Ellison, personally guaranteed $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount's hostile bid, bolstering Paramount's financial backing and intensifying the takeover battle.
Paramount responds to industry opposition over Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount drops to 72%5%
Paramount issued a statement defending its acquisition amid opposition from over 2,000 industry professionals concerned about the merger's impact on competition and creativity, reflecting ongoing regulatory and public scrutiny.
Warner Bros. Discovery reiterates support for Netflix deal amid ongoing Paramount bid
Warner Bros. Discovery's leadership reaffirmed their commitment to the Netflix acquisition, emphasizing the superior value and certainty of the Netflix deal despite Paramount's ongoing hostile bid and proxy fight.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. offer to all-cash deal to counter Paramount
Netflix dips to 1%1%
Netflix revised its $72 billion offer for Warner Bros. Discovery to an all-cash transaction, simplifying the deal structure to provide more certainty to shareholders and speed up the shareholder vote, strengthening its competitive position against Paramount's hostile bid.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9B bid challenging Netflix's $72B Warner Bros. deal
Paramount drops to 68%11%
Paramount publicly launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $77.9 billion in cash for the entire company, including cable assets Netflix does not want, escalating the bidding war and causing market volatility.
Warner board reaffirms support for Netflix merger
None by June 30, 2027 rises to 15%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board reiterated its recommendation that shareholders approve the Netflix acquisition, effectively diminishing the perceived viability of Paramount’s bid and causing the ‘None by June 30 2027’ outcome to dip further.
Paramount advances hostile takeover with plans to nominate own Warner Bros. board
Paramount dips to 74%2%
Paramount announced it would nominate its own slate of directors for Warner Bros. Discovery before the next shareholder meeting and filed a lawsuit to compel disclosure of Warner's valuation of bids, intensifying the hostile takeover attempt.
Warner Bros. rejects Paramount takeover again, backs Netflix deal
Paramount rises to 14%4%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board again rejected Paramount's hostile takeover bid, reaffirming support for Netflix's offer. This reinforced market confidence in Netflix's deal but Paramount's bid remained active, keeping the contest alive.
Warner Bros rejects Paramount takeover again, backs Netflix bid
Netflix dips to 2%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected Paramount's hostile takeover offer, citing insufficient value and risks, and urged shareholders to support Netflix's $72 billion deal for the studios and streaming business, reinforcing Netflix's position in the market.
Paramount Skydance secures Department of Justice approval for Warner Bros. acquisition
The U.S. Department of Justice cleared Paramount Skydance’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, finding no antitrust violations and stating the deal would likely strengthen competition. This regulatory approval was a major step toward closing the acquisition.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. offer to all-cash transaction to counter Paramount
Netflix plunges to 2%48%
Netflix converted its original cash-and-stock offer to an all-cash deal valued at $72 billion to simplify the transaction and increase certainty for shareholders, aiming to counter Paramount's hostile bid.
Paramount extends $77.9B hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount dips to 76%3%
Paramount extended its tender offer deadline and doubled down on a proxy fight to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share in cash for the entire company, challenging Netflix's $72 billion deal for just the studios and streaming business. This escalated the bidding war and increased market uncertainty.
Paramount Skydance submits superior $110 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros.
Paramount surges to 88%57%
Paramount Skydance announced a topping all-cash bid of $31 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $110 billion, surpassing Netflix's offer. This led Warner Bros. Discovery to terminate its agreement with Netflix and accept Paramount's proposal, causing a major shift in market expectations.
Warner Bros. Discovery board accepts Paramount’s $31 per share offer, ending Netflix deal
Paramount surges to 81%55%
After negotiations and Paramount raising its bid to $31 per share, Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount’s proposal was superior to Netflix’s and signed a definitive agreement, effectively ending Netflix’s acquisition attempt.
Netflix revises $72B Warner Bros. offer to all-cash deal
Netflix plunges to 2%46%
Netflix converted its original cash-and-stock offer into an all-cash transaction to simplify the deal and make it more attractive to Warner Bros. shareholders, aiming to counter Paramount's hostile bid. This move initially boosted Netflix's price but was insufficient to regain lost ground.
Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery announce definitive agreement for $110 billion acquisition
Paramount surges to 78%48%
Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery entered into a definitive agreement for Paramount to acquire the entire company for $31 per share in cash, following Netflix's withdrawal from the bidding process. This marked a decisive turning point favoring Paramount.
Netflix price collapses after market doubts on deal completion
Netflix plunges to 1%46%
Following reports that regulatory hurdles and the pending spin‑off of Warner’s cable assets could delay the Netflix acquisition, investor confidence eroded sharply, driving Netflix’s market price down to near zero.
Paramount Skydance confirms $110 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 81%51%
Paramount Skydance confirmed its agreement to acquire all of Warner Bros. Discovery for $110 billion, marking the likely conclusion of the bidding war and setting the stage for regulatory approval and closing.
Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance sign definitive $110 billion acquisition agreement
Paramount surges to 81%44%
On February 27, 2026, Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance entered into a definitive agreement for Paramount to acquire the entire company for $31 per share, valued at approximately $110 billion. This followed Netflix declining to improve its offer, effectively ending the bidding war in favor of Paramount.
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery enter definitive $110 billion acquisition agreement
Paramount surges to 81%45%
Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery announced a definitive agreement for Paramount to acquire the entire company for $31 per share plus a ticking fee, following Netflix's deal termination, marking a decisive shift in the acquisition race.
Warner Bros. Discovery board declares Paramount’s offer superior, Netflix declines to raise bid
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board determined Paramount’s revised offer was superior to Netflix’s, triggering a period for Netflix to improve its bid. Netflix declined to increase its offer, effectively ending its pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery.
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery reach agreement; Netflix declines to improve offer
Paramount surges to 81%51%
After negotiations, Warner Bros. Discovery determined Paramount’s revised proposal to acquire all outstanding shares for $31 per share was superior to Netflix’s deal. Netflix declined to improve its offer, effectively ceding the acquisition to Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery considers Paramount's bid superior, Netflix declines to increase offer
Paramount surges to 81%50%
Warner Bros. Discovery confirmed Paramount's updated bid was superior, triggering a period for Netflix to improve its offer. Netflix declined, effectively exiting the bidding war, which shifted market confidence strongly toward Paramount.
Netflix declines to match Paramount's revised $31-per-share offer, ending pursuit
Paramount surges to 81%50%
Netflix announced it would not match Paramount Skydance's revised $31-per-share all-cash offer, effectively ending its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery and clearing the way for Paramount's acquisition subject to regulatory approval.
Netflix CEO visits White House amid antitrust concerns over Warner Bros. deal
Netflix plunges to 1%45%
Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos visited Washington to address antitrust concerns regarding the Warner Bros. acquisition, attempting to secure regulatory approval amid growing scrutiny and a renewed bidding war with Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery deems Paramount’s revised $31/share offer superior, Netflix declines to match
Paramount surges to 81%51%
Warner Bros. Discovery confirmed Paramount’s updated $31 per share all-cash offer was superior to Netflix’s, triggering a period for Netflix to improve its bid. Netflix declined to increase its offer, effectively ending its pursuit and clearing the way for Paramount’s acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery board determines Paramount's revised proposal superior, Netflix declines to improve offer
Paramount surges to 82%54%
After renewed negotiations, Warner Bros. Discovery's board found Paramount's updated offer superior, triggering a match period during which Netflix declined to raise its bid, effectively ending Netflix's pursuit and boosting Paramount's market price sharply.
Netflix exits bidding war, declines to raise offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix announced it would not increase its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, effectively exiting the bidding war. This cleared the way for Paramount to become the leading bidder, shifting market expectations towards a Paramount acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery reviews revised acquisition proposal from Paramount
Paramount surges to 81%51%
Paramount submitted an updated bid to Warner Bros. Discovery, prompting the board to review the offer while maintaining the Netflix agreement, indicating ongoing competition and uncertainty in the acquisition process.
Paramount extends tender offer deadline for Warner Bros. shares
Paramount surges to 85%49%
Paramount extended the deadline for its tender offer to acquire Warner Bros. shares, signaling persistence in its hostile bid and causing a sharp rise in Paramount's market price as investors anticipated increased chances of success.
Netflix declines to raise offer, effectively exiting bidding war with Paramount
Paramount dips to 1%2%
Netflix announced it would not increase its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, effectively conceding the bidding war to Paramount Skydance, which had offered a higher all-cash price. This marked a turning point favoring Paramount's acquisition.
Paramount enhances bid with ticking fee and breakup fee coverage
Paramount jumps to 36%5%
Paramount added a ticking fee and promised to cover Warner Bros. Discovery's breakup fee owed to Netflix, making its offer more attractive and increasing pressure on Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery's board.
Paramount adds shareholder incentives and ticking fee to Warner Bros. Discovery bid
Paramount jumps to 36%9%
Paramount Skydance enhanced its acquisition offer by including a $0.25 per share quarterly ticking fee for delays and agreeing to cover Warner Bros. Discovery's breakup fee owed to Netflix, increasing the attractiveness of its bid and pressuring shareholders.
Paramount sweetens bid with ticking fee and breakup fee coverage
Paramount Skydance enhanced its offer by adding a quarterly ticking fee and agreeing to cover Netflix’s $5.8 billion breakup fee if the Netflix deal collapsed, aiming to make its bid more attractive and address shareholder concerns about deal certainty.
Larry Ellison guarantees $40.4 billion for Paramount bid
Paramount drops to 78%7%
Oracle founder Larry Ellison pledged a personal guarantee for $40.4 billion of equity financing for Paramount’s offer, addressing concerns about the bid’s financing and temporarily boosting confidence in Paramount’s chance to close the deal.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s $108 billion leveraged buyout offer
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount's amended $108.4 billion offer, citing it as a risky leveraged buyout with excessive debt and operational risks. The board recommended shareholders accept Netflix's lower but more secure cash-and-stock deal, influencing market confidence.
Warner Bros. board recommends shareholders reject Paramount's offer in favor of Netflix's
Netflix rises to 31%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board publicly rejected Paramount's hostile bid, citing significant risks and debt financing, and urged shareholders to support Netflix's offer, reinforcing Netflix's position despite Paramount's higher cash bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount’s revised offer, backs Netflix deal
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board formally rejected Paramount’s $30 per share hostile offer, reaffirming its support for the Netflix acquisition agreement, citing Paramount’s offer as inferior and riskier. This maintained Netflix’s position as the preferred acquirer at that time.
Larry Ellison personally guarantees $40.4B in Paramount's hostile bid
Paramount jumps to 31%8%
Larry Ellison, father of Paramount CEO David Ellison, personally guaranteed $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount's bid, strengthening the financial backing and credibility of the hostile offer. This caused a significant increase in Paramount's market price.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. Discovery deal to all-cash offer
Netflix jumps to 53%7%
Netflix amended its acquisition agreement to convert the deal into an all-cash transaction valued at $27.75 per share, aiming to simplify the deal and accelerate shareholder approval, reinforcing Netflix's position temporarily.
Warner board recommends shareholders back Netflix deal
Netflix plunges to 23%24%
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board issued a formal recommendation that shareholders reject Paramount’s bid and support Netflix’s acquisition, reinforcing market belief that Netflix is the likely acquirer and pushing the Netflix outcome higher.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount’s $30/share acquisition offer, supports Netflix deal
Netflix rises to 30%3%
The Warner Bros. Discovery board unanimously rejected Paramount’s hostile bid, reaffirming support for Netflix’s acquisition agreement, citing it as superior and in shareholders’ best interests. This maintained Netflix’s position as the preferred acquirer despite Paramount’s higher offer.
Netflix revises offer to all‑cash structure
Netflix plunges to 43%23%
Netflix announced it would convert its $72 billion bid for Warner’s studios and streaming business into an all‑cash deal, aiming to simplify the transaction and sway shareholders away from Paramount’s proposal, causing Netflix’s price to surge.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9 billion takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount challenged Netflix's friendly deal by making a hostile all-cash offer worth $77.9 billion for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, including cable assets Netflix does not want, increasing its market probability sharply.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's $108 billion bid, supports Netflix deal
Netflix jumps to 31%5%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount's higher bid, reaffirming support for Netflix's $82.7 billion deal, citing risks and regulatory concerns with Paramount's offer, which maintained Netflix as the favored acquirer.
Warner Bros. recommends shareholders reject Paramount's offer in favor of Netflix's
Paramount plunges to 32%16%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board urged shareholders to reject Paramount's hostile bid, citing risks and costs, and to support Netflix's offer, which it deemed superior. This led to a decline in Paramount's price and a temporary rebound in Netflix's price.
Paramount files Delaware suit demanding valuation details of its bid
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance sued Warner Bros. Discovery in Delaware Chancery Court to force disclosure of how the company values Paramount’s offer versus Netflix’s, intensifying the takeover contest and boosting Paramount’s odds.
Paramount Skydance submits hostile $108.4 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 25%23%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all-cash bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's offer by about $18 billion. This intensified the bidding war and challenged Netflix's position as the likely acquirer.
Paramount launches hostile $108.4 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 48%21%
Paramount Skydance made a hostile takeover bid directly to shareholders, offering $30 per share in cash, surpassing Netflix's offer and challenging the Netflix deal, which caused a significant market shift favoring Paramount.
Paramount launches hostile all-cash $108.4 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 23%25%
Paramount Skydance made a higher all-cash offer of $108.4 billion to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, including cable networks, challenging Netflix's bid and causing a significant market shift favoring Paramount.
Paramount launches hostile $108 billion takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 48%21%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all-cash tender offer of $30 per share, valued at $108.4 billion, to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix's deal. This escalated the bidding war and caused a significant increase in the market price for the Paramount outcome.
Paramount Skydance launches hostile $108.4 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 27%21%
Paramount Skydance made a higher all-cash offer of $108.4 billion to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, including cable networks, challenging Netflix's earlier deal. This aggressive bid intensified the acquisition battle and caused market uncertainty.
Comcast withdraws from Warner Bros. bidding, citing low likelihood of success
Comcast plunges to 2%31%
Comcast acknowledged its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery was unlikely to succeed due to a cash-light offer compared to rivals Netflix and Paramount, leading to its withdrawal from the bidding process early on.
Paramount launches hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery at $30 per share
Paramount plunges to 24%24%
Paramount Skydance responded to Netflix's deal by launching a hostile all-cash tender offer at $30 per share, valuing Warner Bros. Discovery at $108.4 billion, challenging Netflix's acquisition and escalating the bidding war.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9B takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 77%29%
Paramount initiated a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share in cash, surpassing Netflix's $72 billion friendly offer. This move sparked a bidding war and caused Paramount's market price to rise sharply while Netflix's price began to decline.

警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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