Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 Max leads the tight race at 51% implied probability because its September 1 release delivered frontier gains in coding, long-horizon agentic tasks, and knowledge work, with benchmark leadership on Terminal-Bench and similar suites plus meaningful cost reductions. The near-even split with “Other” at 50% reflects ongoing uncertainty from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and today’s launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 performance on most workloads at substantially lower cost. Traders appear to weigh Fable 5.1’s current edge in raw capability against the possibility that newer or lower-priced models could claim the top spot by September 28, underscoring how quickly competitive positioning shifts with fresh releases and pricing adjustments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于claude-fable-5.1-max 40%
其他 36%
claude-opus-5-high 24%
claude-opus-4-6-high 8%
最新
最新
2026-09-28
claude-fable-5.1-max
51%
其他
59%
claude-opus-5-high
24%
claude-opus-4-6-high
8%
claude-opus-5-max
8%
claude-fable-5.1-max 40%
其他 36%
claude-opus-5-high 24%
claude-opus-4-6-high 8%
最新
最新
2026-09-28
claude-fable-5.1-max
$114 交易量
51%
其他
$19 交易量
59%
claude-opus-5-high
$25 交易量
24%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$30 交易量
8%
claude-opus-5-max
$25 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 Max leads the tight race at 51% implied probability because its September 1 release delivered frontier gains in coding, long-horizon agentic tasks, and knowledge work, with benchmark leadership on Terminal-Bench and similar suites plus meaningful cost reductions. The near-even split with “Other” at 50% reflects ongoing uncertainty from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and today’s launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 performance on most workloads at substantially lower cost. Traders appear to weigh Fable 5.1’s current edge in raw capability against the possibility that newer or lower-priced models could claim the top spot by September 28, underscoring how quickly competitive positioning shifts with fresh releases and pricing adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
交易量
$213结束日期
2026-09-28市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 Max leads the tight race at 51% implied probability because its September 1 release delivered frontier gains in coding, long-horizon agentic tasks, and knowledge work, with benchmark leadership on Terminal-Bench and similar suites plus meaningful cost reductions. The near-even split with “Other” at 50% reflects ongoing uncertainty from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and today’s launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 performance on most workloads at substantially lower cost. Traders appear to weigh Fable 5.1’s current edge in raw capability against the possibility that newer or lower-priced models could claim the top spot by September 28, underscoring how quickly competitive positioning shifts with fresh releases and pricing adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$213结束日期
2026-09-28市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETAnthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 Max leads the tight race at 51% implied probability because its September 1 release delivered frontier gains in coding, long-horizon agentic tasks, and knowledge work, with benchmark leadership on Terminal-Bench and similar suites plus meaningful cost reductions. The near-even split with “Other” at 50% reflects ongoing uncertainty from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and today’s launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 performance on most workloads at substantially lower cost. Traders appear to weigh Fable 5.1’s current edge in raw capability against the possibility that newer or lower-priced models could claim the top spot by September 28, underscoring how quickly competitive positioning shifts with fresh releases and pricing adjustments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题