Anthropic released Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30, 2026, positioning it as the most agentic mid-tier model yet with near-Opus performance in reasoning, tool use, and coding at lower cost and a 1M-token context window. This followed Sonnet 4.6 in February 2026 and aligned with the company's pattern of Sonnet updates every few months, while July and early September saw Opus 5 and Fable/Mythos 5.1 launches that highlighted ongoing iteration across the lineup. Trader sentiment for the next Sonnet release reflects this cadence, competitive pressure from models like OpenAI's o-series and Google's Gemini on agentic benchmarks, and the absence of official announcements or leaks as of mid-September 2026, with markets pricing elevated probability in the coming weeks based on historical timing and recent system card activity. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences or earnings updates that could clarify timelines for incremental Sonnet refinements versus larger generational shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,085 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
38%
10月31日
82%
12月31日
96%
$23,085 交易量
9月30日
$2,633 交易量
38%
10月31日
$12,539 交易量
82%
12月31日
$4,175 交易量
96%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic released Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30, 2026, positioning it as the most agentic mid-tier model yet with near-Opus performance in reasoning, tool use, and coding at lower cost and a 1M-token context window. This followed Sonnet 4.6 in February 2026 and aligned with the company's pattern of Sonnet updates every few months, while July and early September saw Opus 5 and Fable/Mythos 5.1 launches that highlighted ongoing iteration across the lineup. Trader sentiment for the next Sonnet release reflects this cadence, competitive pressure from models like OpenAI's o-series and Google's Gemini on agentic benchmarks, and the absence of official announcements or leaks as of mid-September 2026, with markets pricing elevated probability in the coming weeks based on historical timing and recent system card activity. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences or earnings updates that could clarify timelines for incremental Sonnet refinements versus larger generational shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ET
交易量
$23,085结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic released Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30, 2026, positioning it as the most agentic mid-tier model yet with near-Opus performance in reasoning, tool use, and coding at lower cost and a 1M-token context window. This followed Sonnet 4.6 in February 2026 and aligned with the company's pattern of Sonnet updates every few months, while July and early September saw Opus 5 and Fable/Mythos 5.1 launches that highlighted ongoing iteration across the lineup. Trader sentiment for the next Sonnet release reflects this cadence, competitive pressure from models like OpenAI's o-series and Google's Gemini on agentic benchmarks, and the absence of official announcements or leaks as of mid-September 2026, with markets pricing elevated probability in the coming weeks based on historical timing and recent system card activity. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences or earnings updates that could clarify timelines for incremental Sonnet refinements versus larger generational shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$23,085结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ETAnthropic released Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30, 2026, positioning it as the most agentic mid-tier model yet with near-Opus performance in reasoning, tool use, and coding at lower cost and a 1M-token context window. This followed Sonnet 4.6 in February 2026 and aligned with the company's pattern of Sonnet updates every few months, while July and early September saw Opus 5 and Fable/Mythos 5.1 launches that highlighted ongoing iteration across the lineup. Trader sentiment for the next Sonnet release reflects this cadence, competitive pressure from models like OpenAI's o-series and Google's Gemini on agentic benchmarks, and the absence of official announcements or leaks as of mid-September 2026, with markets pricing elevated probability in the coming weeks based on historical timing and recent system card activity. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences or earnings updates that could clarify timelines for incremental Sonnet refinements versus larger generational shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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