Ongoing severe drought and record-low water levels along the Danube, driven by prolonged dry conditions and extreme summer heat across Central and Eastern Europe, have kept flows well below seasonal averages in key sections including Hungary and Romania. Recent disruptions to shipping, agriculture, hydropower, and tourism underscore the depth of the deficit, with Budapest readings hitting historic lows. Traders assign the highest probability to recovery in October, followed closely by late September, reflecting expectations that sustained high temperatures will delay meaningful rebound until cooler autumn weather and potential rainfall arrive. The tight spread among September and October outcomes highlights uncertainty over the timing of any break in the heat pattern, while minimal odds for an earlier return or prolonged shortfall capture the balance between historical recovery precedents and current meteorological persistence.