Trader consensus favors a peak of 37°C on August 11 in Guangzhou, reflecting ensemble model spreads showing daytime maxima most likely between 34–38°C amid typical late-summer subtropical conditions. High humidity, urban heat-island effects, and variable monsoon moisture create the dispersed probabilities, with 35–36°C outcomes boosted by afternoon thunderstorms or increased cloud cover that limit insolation. Higher readings near 39°C gain traction under clearer skies and stronger subsidence, while extremes below 34°C or above 40°C remain low-probability due to seasonal baselines around 33–35°C and the moderating influence of regional sea breezes. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours, plus local observations of convective initiation, will refine these implied odds ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月11日广州气温最高？
8月11日广州气温最高？
37°C 36%
38°C 19%
36°C 17%
39°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-08-11
31°C或以下
1%
32°C
1%
33°C
2%
34°C
12%
35°C
13%
36°C
17%
37°C
36%
38°C
19%
39°C
14%
40°C
9%
41°C或更高
<1%
37°C 36%
38°C 19%
36°C 17%
39°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-08-11
31°C或以下
$12 交易量
1%
32°C
$12 交易量
1%
33°C
$44 交易量
2%
34°C
$33 交易量
12%
35°C
$0 交易量
13%
36°C
$0 交易量
17%
37°C
$0 交易量
36%
38°C
$0 交易量
19%
39°C
$0 交易量
14%
40°C
$5 交易量
9%
41°C或更高
$2 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favors a peak of 37°C on August 11 in Guangzhou, reflecting ensemble model spreads showing daytime maxima most likely between 34–38°C amid typical late-summer subtropical conditions. High humidity, urban heat-island effects, and variable monsoon moisture create the dispersed probabilities, with 35–36°C outcomes boosted by afternoon thunderstorms or increased cloud cover that limit insolation. Higher readings near 39°C gain traction under clearer skies and stronger subsidence, while extremes below 34°C or above 40°C remain low-probability due to seasonal baselines around 33–35°C and the moderating influence of regional sea breezes. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours, plus local observations of convective initiation, will refine these implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$108结束日期
2026-08-11市场开放时间
Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favors a peak of 37°C on August 11 in Guangzhou, reflecting ensemble model spreads showing daytime maxima most likely between 34–38°C amid typical late-summer subtropical conditions. High humidity, urban heat-island effects, and variable monsoon moisture create the dispersed probabilities, with 35–36°C outcomes boosted by afternoon thunderstorms or increased cloud cover that limit insolation. Higher readings near 39°C gain traction under clearer skies and stronger subsidence, while extremes below 34°C or above 40°C remain low-probability due to seasonal baselines around 33–35°C and the moderating influence of regional sea breezes. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours, plus local observations of convective initiation, will refine these implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$108结束日期
2026-08-11市场开放时间
Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ETTrader consensus favors a peak of 37°C on August 11 in Guangzhou, reflecting ensemble model spreads showing daytime maxima most likely between 34–38°C amid typical late-summer subtropical conditions. High humidity, urban heat-island effects, and variable monsoon moisture create the dispersed probabilities, with 35–36°C outcomes boosted by afternoon thunderstorms or increased cloud cover that limit insolation. Higher readings near 39°C gain traction under clearer skies and stronger subsidence, while extremes below 34°C or above 40°C remain low-probability due to seasonal baselines around 33–35°C and the moderating influence of regional sea breezes. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours, plus local observations of convective initiation, will refine these implied odds ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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