The Southwest Monsoon dominating Luzon continues to drive trader sentiment toward a narrow 29–31°C range for Manila’s August 11 high, with 29°C and 30°C each at 22.5% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover and intermittent heavy rains reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the 31°C August climatological average. Active 2026 Pacific typhoon season systems, including recent passages of Dolphin and localized depressions, reinforce this pattern by maintaining moist southwesterly flow and suppressing clear-sky heating episodes that could push readings to 33°C or higher. Updated PAGASA guidance and model consensus on monsoon strength through mid-August remain the key near-term variables that could shift resolution odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月11日马尼拉气温最高？
8月11日马尼拉气温最高？
29°C 23%
30°C 23%
31°C 17%
28°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-11
25°C或以下
1%
26°C
8%
27°C
9%
28°C
13%
29°C
23%
30°C
23%
31°C
17%
32°C
11%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C或更高
1%
29°C 23%
30°C 23%
31°C 17%
28°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-11
25°C或以下
$12 交易量
1%
26°C
$15 交易量
8%
27°C
$2 交易量
9%
28°C
$0 交易量
13%
29°C
$0 交易量
23%
30°C
$0 交易量
23%
31°C
$0 交易量
17%
32°C
$0 交易量
11%
33°C
$27 交易量
2%
34°C
$5 交易量
2%
35°C或更高
$12 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The Southwest Monsoon dominating Luzon continues to drive trader sentiment toward a narrow 29–31°C range for Manila’s August 11 high, with 29°C and 30°C each at 22.5% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover and intermittent heavy rains reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the 31°C August climatological average. Active 2026 Pacific typhoon season systems, including recent passages of Dolphin and localized depressions, reinforce this pattern by maintaining moist southwesterly flow and suppressing clear-sky heating episodes that could push readings to 33°C or higher. Updated PAGASA guidance and model consensus on monsoon strength through mid-August remain the key near-term variables that could shift resolution odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$73结束日期
2026-08-11市场开放时间
Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The Southwest Monsoon dominating Luzon continues to drive trader sentiment toward a narrow 29–31°C range for Manila’s August 11 high, with 29°C and 30°C each at 22.5% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover and intermittent heavy rains reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the 31°C August climatological average. Active 2026 Pacific typhoon season systems, including recent passages of Dolphin and localized depressions, reinforce this pattern by maintaining moist southwesterly flow and suppressing clear-sky heating episodes that could push readings to 33°C or higher. Updated PAGASA guidance and model consensus on monsoon strength through mid-August remain the key near-term variables that could shift resolution odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$73结束日期
2026-08-11市场开放时间
Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ETThe Southwest Monsoon dominating Luzon continues to drive trader sentiment toward a narrow 29–31°C range for Manila’s August 11 high, with 29°C and 30°C each at 22.5% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover and intermittent heavy rains reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the 31°C August climatological average. Active 2026 Pacific typhoon season systems, including recent passages of Dolphin and localized depressions, reinforce this pattern by maintaining moist southwesterly flow and suppressing clear-sky heating episodes that could push readings to 33°C or higher. Updated PAGASA guidance and model consensus on monsoon strength through mid-August remain the key near-term variables that could shift resolution odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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