Recent short-range forecast models from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Istanbul maximum temperatures on August 9 hovering near the seasonal average of 28–30 °C, with ensemble spreads creating tight uncertainty around 27–28 °C. This scientific ambiguity—driven by variable high-pressure positioning, modest moisture advection from the Black Sea, and limited diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies—explains why traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to those two outcomes. Historical August baselines and ongoing regional heatwave patterns further support the narrow distribution, while upcoming model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift resolution thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月9日伊斯坦布尔的最高温度？
8月9日伊斯坦布尔的最高温度？
27°C 43%
28°C 38%
29°C 11%
26°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
23°C或以下
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
3%
26°C
10%
27°C
43%
28°C
38%
29°C
11%
30°C
2%
31°C
2%
32°C
2%
33°C或更高
<1%
27°C 43%
28°C 38%
29°C 11%
26°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
23°C或以下
$50 交易量
<1%
24°C
$36 交易量
<1%
25°C
$43 交易量
3%
26°C
$26 交易量
10%
27°C
$1,677 交易量
43%
28°C
$55 交易量
38%
29°C
$40 交易量
11%
30°C
$49 交易量
2%
31°C
$34 交易量
2%
32°C
$10 交易量
2%
33°C或更高
$34 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Istanbul maximum temperatures on August 9 hovering near the seasonal average of 28–30 °C, with ensemble spreads creating tight uncertainty around 27–28 °C. This scientific ambiguity—driven by variable high-pressure positioning, modest moisture advection from the Black Sea, and limited diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies—explains why traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to those two outcomes. Historical August baselines and ongoing regional heatwave patterns further support the narrow distribution, while upcoming model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$2,053结束日期
2026-08-09市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Istanbul maximum temperatures on August 9 hovering near the seasonal average of 28–30 °C, with ensemble spreads creating tight uncertainty around 27–28 °C. This scientific ambiguity—driven by variable high-pressure positioning, modest moisture advection from the Black Sea, and limited diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies—explains why traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to those two outcomes. Historical August baselines and ongoing regional heatwave patterns further support the narrow distribution, while upcoming model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,053结束日期
2026-08-09市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast models from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Istanbul maximum temperatures on August 9 hovering near the seasonal average of 28–30 °C, with ensemble spreads creating tight uncertainty around 27–28 °C. This scientific ambiguity—driven by variable high-pressure positioning, modest moisture advection from the Black Sea, and limited diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies—explains why traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to those two outcomes. Historical August baselines and ongoing regional heatwave patterns further support the narrow distribution, while upcoming model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift resolution thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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