Recent observational data and short-range model consensus point to peak temperatures in Shanghai on August 7 hovering near 34°C, with 33–35°C outcomes commanding over 75% combined market-implied probability. Subtropical summer conditions, including high humidity and urban heat island effects, sustain elevated readings, while variable afternoon convection and possible sea-breeze influences introduce modest cooling risk that keeps 35°C from pulling ahead. Ensemble spreads remain tight given the short lead time, with newer runs showing limited divergence on insolation and boundary-layer mixing; traders weigh these factors against typical early-August climatology of 32–34°C highs. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance and next model cycle could quickly shift sentiment among the clustered central outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月7日上海气温最高？
8月7日上海气温最高？
34°C 33%
33°C 30%
35°C 16%
32°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-07
28°C or below
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
3%
32°C
13%
33°C
30%
34°C
33%
35°C
16%
36°C
5%
37°C
2%
38°C or higher
1%
34°C 33%
33°C 30%
35°C 16%
32°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-07
28°C or below
$457 交易量
1%
29°C
$63 交易量
<1%
30°C
$20 交易量
2%
31°C
$156 交易量
3%
32°C
$88 交易量
13%
33°C
$523 交易量
30%
34°C
$179 交易量
33%
35°C
$346 交易量
16%
36°C
$246 交易量
5%
37°C
$405 交易量
2%
38°C or higher
$52 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observational data and short-range model consensus point to peak temperatures in Shanghai on August 7 hovering near 34°C, with 33–35°C outcomes commanding over 75% combined market-implied probability. Subtropical summer conditions, including high humidity and urban heat island effects, sustain elevated readings, while variable afternoon convection and possible sea-breeze influences introduce modest cooling risk that keeps 35°C from pulling ahead. Ensemble spreads remain tight given the short lead time, with newer runs showing limited divergence on insolation and boundary-layer mixing; traders weigh these factors against typical early-August climatology of 32–34°C highs. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance and next model cycle could quickly shift sentiment among the clustered central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$2,534结束日期
2026-08-07市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observational data and short-range model consensus point to peak temperatures in Shanghai on August 7 hovering near 34°C, with 33–35°C outcomes commanding over 75% combined market-implied probability. Subtropical summer conditions, including high humidity and urban heat island effects, sustain elevated readings, while variable afternoon convection and possible sea-breeze influences introduce modest cooling risk that keeps 35°C from pulling ahead. Ensemble spreads remain tight given the short lead time, with newer runs showing limited divergence on insolation and boundary-layer mixing; traders weigh these factors against typical early-August climatology of 32–34°C highs. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance and next model cycle could quickly shift sentiment among the clustered central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,534结束日期
2026-08-07市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent observational data and short-range model consensus point to peak temperatures in Shanghai on August 7 hovering near 34°C, with 33–35°C outcomes commanding over 75% combined market-implied probability. Subtropical summer conditions, including high humidity and urban heat island effects, sustain elevated readings, while variable afternoon convection and possible sea-breeze influences introduce modest cooling risk that keeps 35°C from pulling ahead. Ensemble spreads remain tight given the short lead time, with newer runs showing limited divergence on insolation and boundary-layer mixing; traders weigh these factors against typical early-August climatology of 32–34°C highs. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance and next model cycle could quickly shift sentiment among the clustered central outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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