Recent ensemble forecasts position 33–35°C as the most probable peak range for Shenzhen on August 7, aligning with the market’s leading 34°C outcome at 37.5% implied probability. Subtropical summer conditions—high solar insolation, light southerly flow, and typical humidity above 70%—support daytime maxima near long-term early-August averages of 31–33°C, while scattered cloud cover and possible late-day showers introduce modest cooling that tempers upside risk. Model consensus shows limited spread, with no typhoon or heat-dome signals in the latest runs, keeping the distribution tightly centered. Updated China Meteorological Administration and global model guidance expected over the next 48 hours will refine boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月7日深圳气温最高？
8月7日深圳气温最高？
34°C 38%
35°C 24%
33°C 20%
36°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-07
28°C或以下
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
5%
33°C
20%
34°C
38%
35°C
24%
36°C
13%
37°C
6%
38°C或更高
1%
34°C 38%
35°C 24%
33°C 20%
36°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-07
28°C或以下
$662 交易量
<1%
29°C
$434 交易量
<1%
30°C
$412 交易量
1%
31°C
$523 交易量
2%
32°C
$333 交易量
5%
33°C
$544 交易量
20%
34°C
$1,988 交易量
38%
35°C
$1,114 交易量
24%
36°C
$874 交易量
13%
37°C
$387 交易量
6%
38°C或更高
$389 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts position 33–35°C as the most probable peak range for Shenzhen on August 7, aligning with the market’s leading 34°C outcome at 37.5% implied probability. Subtropical summer conditions—high solar insolation, light southerly flow, and typical humidity above 70%—support daytime maxima near long-term early-August averages of 31–33°C, while scattered cloud cover and possible late-day showers introduce modest cooling that tempers upside risk. Model consensus shows limited spread, with no typhoon or heat-dome signals in the latest runs, keeping the distribution tightly centered. Updated China Meteorological Administration and global model guidance expected over the next 48 hours will refine boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 5, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$7,661结束日期
2026-08-07市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts position 33–35°C as the most probable peak range for Shenzhen on August 7, aligning with the market’s leading 34°C outcome at 37.5% implied probability. Subtropical summer conditions—high solar insolation, light southerly flow, and typical humidity above 70%—support daytime maxima near long-term early-August averages of 31–33°C, while scattered cloud cover and possible late-day showers introduce modest cooling that tempers upside risk. Model consensus shows limited spread, with no typhoon or heat-dome signals in the latest runs, keeping the distribution tightly centered. Updated China Meteorological Administration and global model guidance expected over the next 48 hours will refine boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$7,661结束日期
2026-08-07市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts position 33–35°C as the most probable peak range for Shenzhen on August 7, aligning with the market’s leading 34°C outcome at 37.5% implied probability. Subtropical summer conditions—high solar insolation, light southerly flow, and typical humidity above 70%—support daytime maxima near long-term early-August averages of 31–33°C, while scattered cloud cover and possible late-day showers introduce modest cooling that tempers upside risk. Model consensus shows limited spread, with no typhoon or heat-dome signals in the latest runs, keeping the distribution tightly centered. Updated China Meteorological Administration and global model guidance expected over the next 48 hours will refine boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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