Manila’s peak temperature on August 7 is expected to fall in the narrow 28–30 °C range because the southwest monsoon (habagat), further strengthened by nearby Tropical Cyclone Dolphin, continues to deliver widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity that suppress daytime heating. PAGASA guidance for August 6–7 explicitly forecasts cloudy skies with thunderstorms across western Luzon, limiting solar insolation and keeping maxima 1–3 °C below the seasonal 31–32 °C climatological average recorded at Manila stations. Model consensus and recent observations show consistent moderation from persistent moisture and reduced sunshine hours, which aligns with trader positioning that places 29 °C as the clear mode. Any break in monsoon rainfall or shift in steering flow could allow brief clearing and a modest uptick toward 30–31 °C, but current official outlooks through the weekend maintain the suppressed regime.