Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and light southerly flow are driving strong daytime radiative heating in Madrid ahead of August 7, with AEMET and supporting ECMWF guidance centering maximum temperatures around 37–38°C at the Retiro station. This setup exceeds the long-term August climatological average of 32–33°C and sustains the current above-normal warmth anomaly across central Spain. Trader consensus, reflected in the 47.5% implied probability for 38°C and 29.5% for 39°C, incorporates minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact peak timing while discounting lower outcomes. Official observations from recent days and the absence of significant cloud cover or advective cooling reinforce focus on these thresholds, with resolution hinging on the final 24-hour forecast update.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月7日马德里气温最高？
8月7日马德里气温最高？
38°C 47%
39°C 30%
37°C 14%
40°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-07
35°C or below
1%
36°C
3%
37°C
14%
38°C
47%
39°C
30%
40°C
9%
41°C
2%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
38°C 47%
39°C 30%
37°C 14%
40°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-07
35°C or below
$20 交易量
1%
36°C
$37 交易量
3%
37°C
$414 交易量
14%
38°C
$220 交易量
47%
39°C
$107 交易量
30%
40°C
$111 交易量
9%
41°C
$136 交易量
2%
42°C
$67 交易量
<1%
43°C
$21 交易量
<1%
44°C
$36 交易量
<1%
45°C or higher
$397 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and light southerly flow are driving strong daytime radiative heating in Madrid ahead of August 7, with AEMET and supporting ECMWF guidance centering maximum temperatures around 37–38°C at the Retiro station. This setup exceeds the long-term August climatological average of 32–33°C and sustains the current above-normal warmth anomaly across central Spain. Trader consensus, reflected in the 47.5% implied probability for 38°C and 29.5% for 39°C, incorporates minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact peak timing while discounting lower outcomes. Official observations from recent days and the absence of significant cloud cover or advective cooling reinforce focus on these thresholds, with resolution hinging on the final 24-hour forecast update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$1,564结束日期
2026-08-07市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and light southerly flow are driving strong daytime radiative heating in Madrid ahead of August 7, with AEMET and supporting ECMWF guidance centering maximum temperatures around 37–38°C at the Retiro station. This setup exceeds the long-term August climatological average of 32–33°C and sustains the current above-normal warmth anomaly across central Spain. Trader consensus, reflected in the 47.5% implied probability for 38°C and 29.5% for 39°C, incorporates minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact peak timing while discounting lower outcomes. Official observations from recent days and the absence of significant cloud cover or advective cooling reinforce focus on these thresholds, with resolution hinging on the final 24-hour forecast update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,564结束日期
2026-08-07市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETPersistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and light southerly flow are driving strong daytime radiative heating in Madrid ahead of August 7, with AEMET and supporting ECMWF guidance centering maximum temperatures around 37–38°C at the Retiro station. This setup exceeds the long-term August climatological average of 32–33°C and sustains the current above-normal warmth anomaly across central Spain. Trader consensus, reflected in the 47.5% implied probability for 38°C and 29.5% for 39°C, incorporates minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact peak timing while discounting lower outcomes. Official observations from recent days and the absence of significant cloud cover or advective cooling reinforce focus on these thresholds, with resolution hinging on the final 24-hour forecast update.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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