**Recent official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and supporting models position the overnight low in the Seoul/Incheon area for August 9 at approximately 24–25°C, driving the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes.** Current heatwave conditions across the region, with daytime highs near 31–35°C and elevated humidity maintaining elevated minimum temperatures, support this range; typical mid-August climatology shows morning lows of 22–24°C, but persistent warm advection and limited nocturnal cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies favor the upper end. Model consensus highlights minimal frontal influence or stronger onshore flow that would otherwise drop readings below 24°C, while the absence of significant rain or cloud cover overnight reduces the chance of further suppression. Traders appear to weigh the latest short-range guidance—updated within the past 48 hours—against historical variance, resulting in 25°C holding the plurality at 48.5% implied probability and 24°C close behind at 34.5%. Upcoming KMA morning updates and any revisions to boundary-layer moisture or wind forecasts represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these odds before resolution.