Recent ensemble forecasts from the German Weather Service and European models indicate Munich’s August 8 maximum will likely fall in the narrow 29–30 °C range, keeping those two outcomes nearly tied in trader pricing. A weakening high-pressure ridge over central Europe combined with increasing moisture and potential afternoon convection could trim peak heating by a degree or two, while clearer breaks or slightly stronger insolation would favor the upper end of that band. Historical August variability around 25–28 °C provides context, yet the current setup shows modest model spread tied to timing of any weak frontal passage. Updated 12z and 00z runs plus DWD guidance over the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.