Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued August 5 project a daytime maximum of 32°C for Tokyo on August 6, with overnight lows near 24°C under mostly cloudy conditions, aligning closely with the market's leading 32°C outcome at 39.5% implied probability. Persistent summer heat driven by subtropical high pressure, combined with Tokyo's urban heat island effect that elevates observed temperatures above regional averages, supports expectations in the 31–33°C range that together exceed 85% probability. Recent model consensus shows limited deviation, though afternoon convective activity could modestly suppress peak readings below climatological norms of 31–32°C. Traders are weighting the authoritative forecast heavily while accounting for minor variability in mesoscale conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月6日东京气温最高？
8月6日东京气温最高？
32°C 41%
33°C 29%
31°C 18%
34°C 9%
最新
$10,575 交易量
最新
$10,575 交易量
2026-08-06
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
18%
32°C
41%
33°C
29%
34°C
9%
35°C
3%
36°C or higher
1%
32°C 41%
33°C 29%
31°C 18%
34°C 9%
最新
$10,575 交易量
最新
$10,575 交易量
2026-08-06
26°C or below
$811 交易量
<1%
27°C
$906 交易量
<1%
28°C
$1,556 交易量
<1%
29°C
$765 交易量
2%
30°C
$858 交易量
3%
31°C
$1,186 交易量
18%
32°C
$923 交易量
41%
33°C
$910 交易量
29%
34°C
$1,177 交易量
9%
35°C
$686 交易量
3%
36°C or higher
$798 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued August 5 project a daytime maximum of 32°C for Tokyo on August 6, with overnight lows near 24°C under mostly cloudy conditions, aligning closely with the market's leading 32°C outcome at 39.5% implied probability. Persistent summer heat driven by subtropical high pressure, combined with Tokyo's urban heat island effect that elevates observed temperatures above regional averages, supports expectations in the 31–33°C range that together exceed 85% probability. Recent model consensus shows limited deviation, though afternoon convective activity could modestly suppress peak readings below climatological norms of 31–32°C. Traders are weighting the authoritative forecast heavily while accounting for minor variability in mesoscale conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$10,575结束日期
2026-08-06市场开放时间
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued August 5 project a daytime maximum of 32°C for Tokyo on August 6, with overnight lows near 24°C under mostly cloudy conditions, aligning closely with the market's leading 32°C outcome at 39.5% implied probability. Persistent summer heat driven by subtropical high pressure, combined with Tokyo's urban heat island effect that elevates observed temperatures above regional averages, supports expectations in the 31–33°C range that together exceed 85% probability. Recent model consensus shows limited deviation, though afternoon convective activity could modestly suppress peak readings below climatological norms of 31–32°C. Traders are weighting the authoritative forecast heavily while accounting for minor variability in mesoscale conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10,575结束日期
2026-08-06市场开放时间
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETOfficial Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued August 5 project a daytime maximum of 32°C for Tokyo on August 6, with overnight lows near 24°C under mostly cloudy conditions, aligning closely with the market's leading 32°C outcome at 39.5% implied probability. Persistent summer heat driven by subtropical high pressure, combined with Tokyo's urban heat island effect that elevates observed temperatures above regional averages, supports expectations in the 31–33°C range that together exceed 85% probability. Recent model consensus shows limited deviation, though afternoon convective activity could modestly suppress peak readings below climatological norms of 31–32°C. Traders are weighting the authoritative forecast heavily while accounting for minor variability in mesoscale conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题