**Market-implied odds show a tight contest between 28°C and 29°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Istanbul on August 8, with 30°C a distant third.** This reflects ensemble model consensus from sources such as the ECMWF and GFS runs available on August 7, which place the expected daily high in the narrow 28–29°C range under typical late-summer synoptic conditions. Key differentiating factors include modest variability in daytime insolation due to possible scattered high cloud, the strength and direction of the prevailing northeasterly Etesian winds that enhance sea-breeze cooling from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, and minor differences in boundary-layer mixing. Istanbul’s coastal location and urban heat-island effects add further uncertainty at the station level (commonly measured at sites like Atatürk Airport), where a 1°C shift can easily separate the top outcomes. No anomalous heatwave or blocking pattern is indicated, keeping extremes below 31°C or above 27°C at very low probability. Traders are therefore weighting the latest model guidance and any morning updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) that could refine the maximum by a degree.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月8日伊斯坦布尔气温最高？
8月8日伊斯坦布尔气温最高？
29°C 40%
28°C 35%
30°C 16%
27°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-08
23°C或以下
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
12%
28°C
35%
29°C
40%
30°C
16%
31°C
2%
32°C
<1%
33°C或以上
<1%
29°C 40%
28°C 35%
30°C 16%
27°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-08
23°C或以下
$486 交易量
<1%
24°C
$441 交易量
<1%
25°C
$612 交易量
<1%
26°C
$641 交易量
<1%
27°C
$942 交易量
12%
28°C
$1,613 交易量
35%
29°C
$1,122 交易量
40%
30°C
$846 交易量
16%
31°C
$661 交易量
2%
32°C
$714 交易量
<1%
33°C或以上
$1,076 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds show a tight contest between 28°C and 29°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Istanbul on August 8, with 30°C a distant third.** This reflects ensemble model consensus from sources such as the ECMWF and GFS runs available on August 7, which place the expected daily high in the narrow 28–29°C range under typical late-summer synoptic conditions.
Key differentiating factors include modest variability in daytime insolation due to possible scattered high cloud, the strength and direction of the prevailing northeasterly Etesian winds that enhance sea-breeze cooling from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, and minor differences in boundary-layer mixing. Istanbul’s coastal location and urban heat-island effects add further uncertainty at the station level (commonly measured at sites like Atatürk Airport), where a 1°C shift can easily separate the top outcomes. No anomalous heatwave or blocking pattern is indicated, keeping extremes below 31°C or above 27°C at very low probability.
Traders are therefore weighting the latest model guidance and any morning updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) that could refine the maximum by a degree.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$9,129结束日期
2026-08-08市场开放时间
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds show a tight contest between 28°C and 29°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Istanbul on August 8, with 30°C a distant third.** This reflects ensemble model consensus from sources such as the ECMWF and GFS runs available on August 7, which place the expected daily high in the narrow 28–29°C range under typical late-summer synoptic conditions.
Key differentiating factors include modest variability in daytime insolation due to possible scattered high cloud, the strength and direction of the prevailing northeasterly Etesian winds that enhance sea-breeze cooling from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, and minor differences in boundary-layer mixing. Istanbul’s coastal location and urban heat-island effects add further uncertainty at the station level (commonly measured at sites like Atatürk Airport), where a 1°C shift can easily separate the top outcomes. No anomalous heatwave or blocking pattern is indicated, keeping extremes below 31°C or above 27°C at very low probability.
Traders are therefore weighting the latest model guidance and any morning updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) that could refine the maximum by a degree.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$9,129结束日期
2026-08-08市场开放时间
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds show a tight contest between 28°C and 29°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Istanbul on August 8, with 30°C a distant third.** This reflects ensemble model consensus from sources such as the ECMWF and GFS runs available on August 7, which place the expected daily high in the narrow 28–29°C range under typical late-summer synoptic conditions. Key differentiating factors include modest variability in daytime insolation due to possible scattered high cloud, the strength and direction of the prevailing northeasterly Etesian winds that enhance sea-breeze cooling from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, and minor differences in boundary-layer mixing. Istanbul’s coastal location and urban heat-island effects add further uncertainty at the station level (commonly measured at sites like Atatürk Airport), where a 1°C shift can easily separate the top outcomes. No anomalous heatwave or blocking pattern is indicated, keeping extremes below 31°C or above 27°C at very low probability. Traders are therefore weighting the latest model guidance and any morning updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) that could refine the maximum by a degree.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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