Current forecast consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to a daily maximum of 36–37°C in Madrid on August 9 amid an ongoing heatwave driven by a strong subtropical ridge, clear skies, and light winds that limit mixing. This aligns with early-August climatology of 32–34°C averages while recent observations show daytime peaks already reaching 37–39°C across central Spain. Traders price 36°C highest at 45.5% implied probability because ensemble runs cluster tightly around that threshold, with limited upside risk from further intensification or downside from any late cooling advection. Updated guidance expected from national meteorological services over the next 48 hours could refine land-breeze and urban heat-island effects before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月9日马德里气温最高？
8月9日马德里气温最高？
36°C 45%
37°C 24%
35°C 14%
34°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
32°C or below
2%
33°C
1%
34°C
6%
35°C
14%
36°C
45%
37°C
25%
38°C
5%
39°C
1%
40°C
2%
41°C
2%
42°C or higher
2%
36°C 45%
37°C 24%
35°C 14%
34°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
32°C or below
$12 交易量
2%
33°C
$39 交易量
1%
34°C
$1 交易量
6%
35°C
$5 交易量
14%
36°C
$61 交易量
45%
37°C
$0 交易量
25%
38°C
$6 交易量
5%
39°C
$18 交易量
1%
40°C
$18 交易量
2%
41°C
$12 交易量
2%
42°C or higher
$12 交易量
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to a daily maximum of 36–37°C in Madrid on August 9 amid an ongoing heatwave driven by a strong subtropical ridge, clear skies, and light winds that limit mixing. This aligns with early-August climatology of 32–34°C averages while recent observations show daytime peaks already reaching 37–39°C across central Spain. Traders price 36°C highest at 45.5% implied probability because ensemble runs cluster tightly around that threshold, with limited upside risk from further intensification or downside from any late cooling advection. Updated guidance expected from national meteorological services over the next 48 hours could refine land-breeze and urban heat-island effects before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$184结束日期
2026-08-09市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to a daily maximum of 36–37°C in Madrid on August 9 amid an ongoing heatwave driven by a strong subtropical ridge, clear skies, and light winds that limit mixing. This aligns with early-August climatology of 32–34°C averages while recent observations show daytime peaks already reaching 37–39°C across central Spain. Traders price 36°C highest at 45.5% implied probability because ensemble runs cluster tightly around that threshold, with limited upside risk from further intensification or downside from any late cooling advection. Updated guidance expected from national meteorological services over the next 48 hours could refine land-breeze and urban heat-island effects before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$184结束日期
2026-08-09市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETCurrent forecast consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to a daily maximum of 36–37°C in Madrid on August 9 amid an ongoing heatwave driven by a strong subtropical ridge, clear skies, and light winds that limit mixing. This aligns with early-August climatology of 32–34°C averages while recent observations show daytime peaks already reaching 37–39°C across central Spain. Traders price 36°C highest at 45.5% implied probability because ensemble runs cluster tightly around that threshold, with limited upside risk from further intensification or downside from any late cooling advection. Updated guidance expected from national meteorological services over the next 48 hours could refine land-breeze and urban heat-island effects before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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