**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a maximum of 35°C on August 10 under mainly fine conditions with a 29–35°C range and 50–85% relative humidity, reflecting trader consensus around the closely matched 34°C (30.5%) and 35°C (36.5%) outcomes.** High uncertainty between these thresholds stems from typical subtropical summer variability: strong solar heating under clear skies can push temperatures higher in the urban heat island, while scattered afternoon showers or increased cloud cover—common in the wet season—can cap peaks by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Recent seasonal guidance indicates normal-to-above-normal temperatures for August–October amid long-term warming trends, supporting elevated odds for 35–36°C, yet the 21% probability on 36°C accounts for the narrow window needed for exceptional clear, calm conditions to exceed the forecast maximum. Lower probabilities on 37°C+ or below 34°C align with the low likelihood of extreme deviations from model consensus or historical August analogs. Updated model runs and any thunderstorm warnings in the next 24 hours will be the key drivers shifting these implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月10日香港气温最高？
8月10日香港气温最高？
35°C 37%
34°C 30%
36°C 22%
37°C 9%
最新
$34,121 交易量
最新
$34,121 交易量
2026-08-10
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
3%
34°C
30%
35°C
37%
36°C
22%
37°C
9%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 37%
34°C 30%
36°C 22%
37°C 9%
最新
$34,121 交易量
最新
$34,121 交易量
2026-08-10
29°C or below
$1,161 交易量
<1%
30°C
$1,694 交易量
<1%
31°C
$2,261 交易量
<1%
32°C
$2,244 交易量
1%
33°C
$3,391 交易量
3%
34°C
$2,962 交易量
30%
35°C
$3,653 交易量
37%
36°C
$2,771 交易量
22%
37°C
$6,667 交易量
9%
38°C
$6,006 交易量
1%
39°C or higher
$1,312 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a maximum of 35°C on August 10 under mainly fine conditions with a 29–35°C range and 50–85% relative humidity, reflecting trader consensus around the closely matched 34°C (30.5%) and 35°C (36.5%) outcomes.**
High uncertainty between these thresholds stems from typical subtropical summer variability: strong solar heating under clear skies can push temperatures higher in the urban heat island, while scattered afternoon showers or increased cloud cover—common in the wet season—can cap peaks by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Recent seasonal guidance indicates normal-to-above-normal temperatures for August–October amid long-term warming trends, supporting elevated odds for 35–36°C, yet the 21% probability on 36°C accounts for the narrow window needed for exceptional clear, calm conditions to exceed the forecast maximum. Lower probabilities on 37°C+ or below 34°C align with the low likelihood of extreme deviations from model consensus or historical August analogs. Updated model runs and any thunderstorm warnings in the next 24 hours will be the key drivers shifting these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Aug 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$34,121结束日期
2026-08-10市场开放时间
Aug 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a maximum of 35°C on August 10 under mainly fine conditions with a 29–35°C range and 50–85% relative humidity, reflecting trader consensus around the closely matched 34°C (30.5%) and 35°C (36.5%) outcomes.**
High uncertainty between these thresholds stems from typical subtropical summer variability: strong solar heating under clear skies can push temperatures higher in the urban heat island, while scattered afternoon showers or increased cloud cover—common in the wet season—can cap peaks by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Recent seasonal guidance indicates normal-to-above-normal temperatures for August–October amid long-term warming trends, supporting elevated odds for 35–36°C, yet the 21% probability on 36°C accounts for the narrow window needed for exceptional clear, calm conditions to exceed the forecast maximum. Lower probabilities on 37°C+ or below 34°C align with the low likelihood of extreme deviations from model consensus or historical August analogs. Updated model runs and any thunderstorm warnings in the next 24 hours will be the key drivers shifting these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$34,121结束日期
2026-08-10市场开放时间
Aug 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a maximum of 35°C on August 10 under mainly fine conditions with a 29–35°C range and 50–85% relative humidity, reflecting trader consensus around the closely matched 34°C (30.5%) and 35°C (36.5%) outcomes.** High uncertainty between these thresholds stems from typical subtropical summer variability: strong solar heating under clear skies can push temperatures higher in the urban heat island, while scattered afternoon showers or increased cloud cover—common in the wet season—can cap peaks by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Recent seasonal guidance indicates normal-to-above-normal temperatures for August–October amid long-term warming trends, supporting elevated odds for 35–36°C, yet the 21% probability on 36°C accounts for the narrow window needed for exceptional clear, calm conditions to exceed the forecast maximum. Lower probabilities on 37°C+ or below 34°C align with the low likelihood of extreme deviations from model consensus or historical August analogs. Updated model runs and any thunderstorm warnings in the next 24 hours will be the key drivers shifting these implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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