Current short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF position maximum temperatures in Madrid near 37–38 °C on August 11 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and warm advection from North Africa. These conditions favor strong daytime insolation and limited nocturnal cooling, consistent with climatological August peaks but elevated relative to the 33 °C seasonal average. Recent model runs show tight clustering around these values with low spread, supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 37 °C (48.5 %) and 38 °C (30 %). Earlier 2026 heatwaves demonstrated similar synoptic setups, yet the near-term outlook lacks signals for further intensification or cooling before the date. Updated guidance expected from AEMET and ECMWF over the next 48 hours could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月11日马德里气温最高？
8月11日马德里气温最高？
37°C 49%
38°C 34%
36°C 16%
41°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-11
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
2%
35°C
3%
36°C
16%
37°C
49%
38°C
34%
39°C
4%
40°C
5%
41°C
5%
42°C or higher
1%
37°C 49%
38°C 34%
36°C 16%
41°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-11
32°C or below
$32 交易量
<1%
33°C
$32 交易量
<1%
34°C
$37 交易量
2%
35°C
$87 交易量
3%
36°C
$44 交易量
16%
37°C
$71 交易量
49%
38°C
$113 交易量
34%
39°C
$32 交易量
4%
40°C
$27 交易量
5%
41°C
$5 交易量
5%
42°C or higher
$37 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF position maximum temperatures in Madrid near 37–38 °C on August 11 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and warm advection from North Africa. These conditions favor strong daytime insolation and limited nocturnal cooling, consistent with climatological August peaks but elevated relative to the 33 °C seasonal average. Recent model runs show tight clustering around these values with low spread, supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 37 °C (48.5 %) and 38 °C (30 %). Earlier 2026 heatwaves demonstrated similar synoptic setups, yet the near-term outlook lacks signals for further intensification or cooling before the date. Updated guidance expected from AEMET and ECMWF over the next 48 hours could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$517结束日期
2026-08-11市场开放时间
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF position maximum temperatures in Madrid near 37–38 °C on August 11 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and warm advection from North Africa. These conditions favor strong daytime insolation and limited nocturnal cooling, consistent with climatological August peaks but elevated relative to the 33 °C seasonal average. Recent model runs show tight clustering around these values with low spread, supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 37 °C (48.5 %) and 38 °C (30 %). Earlier 2026 heatwaves demonstrated similar synoptic setups, yet the near-term outlook lacks signals for further intensification or cooling before the date. Updated guidance expected from AEMET and ECMWF over the next 48 hours could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$517结束日期
2026-08-11市场开放时间
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETCurrent short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF position maximum temperatures in Madrid near 37–38 °C on August 11 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and warm advection from North Africa. These conditions favor strong daytime insolation and limited nocturnal cooling, consistent with climatological August peaks but elevated relative to the 33 °C seasonal average. Recent model runs show tight clustering around these values with low spread, supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 37 °C (48.5 %) and 38 °C (30 %). Earlier 2026 heatwaves demonstrated similar synoptic setups, yet the near-term outlook lacks signals for further intensification or cooling before the date. Updated guidance expected from AEMET and ECMWF over the next 48 hours could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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