Forecast models from AEMET and supporting ensembles project a peak of 39–40 °C in Madrid on August 13 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge, clear skies, and light winds that favor strong daytime heating over the central plateau. Recent observations show daytime maxima climbing from 36 °C on August 11 toward 38 °C on the 12th, consistent with the seasonal tendency for late-summer heat to intensify when subsidence and dry northerly flow suppress cloud cover and moisture. Ensemble spread remains modest, with only small risks of slight under- or over-forecasting depending on boundary-layer mixing and any late-day convection. These conditions place the market’s leading 39 °C (50.5 %) and 40 °C (32.5 %) outcomes in line with the most probable model consensus while leaving limited room for outliers above 41 °C or below 38 °C. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs expected through the 12th will provide the final refinement before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月13日马德里气温最高？
8月13日马德里气温最高？
39°C 51%
40°C 37%
38°C 8%
41°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-13
35°C or below
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
8%
39°C
51%
40°C
37%
41°C
5%
42°C
2%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C或更高
<1%
39°C 51%
40°C 37%
38°C 8%
41°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-13
35°C or below
$25 交易量
1%
36°C
$61 交易量
1%
37°C
$34 交易量
3%
38°C
$92 交易量
8%
39°C
$174 交易量
51%
40°C
$139 交易量
37%
41°C
$64 交易量
5%
42°C
$95 交易量
2%
43°C
$49 交易量
1%
44°C
$149 交易量
<1%
45°C或更高
$22 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from AEMET and supporting ensembles project a peak of 39–40 °C in Madrid on August 13 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge, clear skies, and light winds that favor strong daytime heating over the central plateau. Recent observations show daytime maxima climbing from 36 °C on August 11 toward 38 °C on the 12th, consistent with the seasonal tendency for late-summer heat to intensify when subsidence and dry northerly flow suppress cloud cover and moisture. Ensemble spread remains modest, with only small risks of slight under- or over-forecasting depending on boundary-layer mixing and any late-day convection. These conditions place the market’s leading 39 °C (50.5 %) and 40 °C (32.5 %) outcomes in line with the most probable model consensus while leaving limited room for outliers above 41 °C or below 38 °C. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs expected through the 12th will provide the final refinement before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$903结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from AEMET and supporting ensembles project a peak of 39–40 °C in Madrid on August 13 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge, clear skies, and light winds that favor strong daytime heating over the central plateau. Recent observations show daytime maxima climbing from 36 °C on August 11 toward 38 °C on the 12th, consistent with the seasonal tendency for late-summer heat to intensify when subsidence and dry northerly flow suppress cloud cover and moisture. Ensemble spread remains modest, with only small risks of slight under- or over-forecasting depending on boundary-layer mixing and any late-day convection. These conditions place the market’s leading 39 °C (50.5 %) and 40 °C (32.5 %) outcomes in line with the most probable model consensus while leaving limited room for outliers above 41 °C or below 38 °C. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs expected through the 12th will provide the final refinement before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$903结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETForecast models from AEMET and supporting ensembles project a peak of 39–40 °C in Madrid on August 13 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge, clear skies, and light winds that favor strong daytime heating over the central plateau. Recent observations show daytime maxima climbing from 36 °C on August 11 toward 38 °C on the 12th, consistent with the seasonal tendency for late-summer heat to intensify when subsidence and dry northerly flow suppress cloud cover and moisture. Ensemble spread remains modest, with only small risks of slight under- or over-forecasting depending on boundary-layer mixing and any late-day convection. These conditions place the market’s leading 39 °C (50.5 %) and 40 °C (32.5 %) outcomes in line with the most probable model consensus while leaving limited room for outliers above 41 °C or below 38 °C. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs expected through the 12th will provide the final refinement before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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